Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast RSS

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ARCHIVED FORECAST - All forecasts expire after 24 hours from the posting date/time.
Issued
Sun, December 1st, 2013 - 7:00AM
Expires
Mon, December 2nd, 2013 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Wendy Wagner
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

The avalanche danger is LOW above and below treeline in the Turnagain Pass area. Caution should be exercised on steep slopes near ridgelines and peaks where isolated wind slabs exist and may be possible for a person to trigger.

This forecast will extend through tomorrow, Monday. The next advisory will be issued Tuesday morning, December 3rd.

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Sun, December 1st, 2013
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Low (1)
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Low (1)
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Low (1)
Avalanche risk
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Avalanche risk
Low (1)
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Avalanche risk
Low (1)
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Avalanche risk
Low (1)
Danger Scale:
No Rating (0)
Low (1)
Moderate (2)
Considerable (3)
High (4)
Extreme (5)
Avalanche Problem 1
  • Normal Caution
    Normal Caution
Normal Caution
Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.
More info at Avalanche.org

For anyone getting out in the mountains today, the main concern is triggering a lingering wind slab avalanche. These are isolated to the high elevation steep slopes (over 40deg) on north, south and east aspects.

GENERAL SNOWPACK DISCUSSION

With little new snow and moderate wind, our thin snowpack is in a holding pattern. The weak layers of earlier this month are still there, but the slabs are deteriorating to the point they are becoming weak layers themselves (picture below). The one exception is areas that have seen wind. Hard wind crusts and slabs are littered about above treeline, yet these are slowly deteriorating as well. Our focus now is on the weakening pack and how the next snowfall will react with it when it’s buried.

 

Well, we polished off November 2013 yesterday and I’d characterize it as a dry month with a few small weather events. This November was a bit similar to last year but quite different than two years ago. Below are comparisons of November snow data. If you would like to view the full charts and explanations of the numbers they are available on the ‘Weather History’ tab under ‘Weather’ above. 

November precipitation from the Turnagain Pass SNOTEL for the past three years below. Note: Average snow water equivalent for November is 4.9″ – we are around half that for this year at 2.6″.

Weather
Sun, December 1st, 2013

We have a significant warm up occurring today to replace the frigid temperatures we have endured that last several days.  During the past 24 hours, temperatures at the upper elevations have begun to climb from below zero into the teens (F), yet at 1,000ft single to minus single digits remain entrenched. Wind has been steady in the 5-10mph range with gusts to 25mph from the northwest.

For today (and into tomorrow) temperatures will continue to rise at the mid and upper elevations into the 20’s F, however the cold air pooled in valleys will likely remain chilly. We should see clear skies and wind ~10mph with gusts in the 20’s from the northeast.

Many of us are looking into the weather crystal ball (weather prediction models) to see if the storm heading our way for the middle of the week will add any snow to our pack. It looks like it should give us a little something but it is still too early to tell. Until then, clear skies and warmer temperatures are on tap through Tuesday.

Observations
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Riding Areas
Updated Tue, January 12th, 2021

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area Status Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass
Open
No parking in turnaround at end of the road near the outhouse.
Placer River
Open
Early season conditions exist, including thin ice on rivers, swamps and lakes. Please do not ride along Railroad tracks. Cross tracks at 90 degree angle and clear the right of way.
Skookum Drainage
Open
Early season conditions exist, including thin ice on rivers, swamps and lakes. Please do not ride along Railroad tracks. Cross tracks at 90 degree angle and clear the right of way.
Turnagain Pass
Open
Twentymile
Closed
Seward District
Carter Lake
Open
Lost Lake Trail
Open
Primrose Trail
Open
Resurrection Pass Trail
Closed
Closed for the 2020/21 winter season.
Snug Harbor
Open
South Fork Snow River Corridor
Open
Summit Lake
Open

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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.