Sat, April 13, 2013 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Sat, April 13th, 2013

Alpine

Above 2,500'

2 - Moderate

Treeline

1,000'-2,500'

1 - Low

Below Treeline

Below 1,000'

1 - Low

0 - No Rating

1 - Low

2 - Moderate

3 - Considerable

4 - High

5 - Extreme


Travel Advice	Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.	Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.	Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.	Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.	Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches	Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.	Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.	Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.	Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.	Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution	Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.	Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.	Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.	Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.	Very large avalanches in many areas.

Avalanche Problem 1

Wind Slabs

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

More info at Avalanche.org

We have received reports of several human triggered wind slabs over the last several days. Yesterday my partner and I were able to release one of these slabs on a steep rollover on a west facing slope, as pictured below:

Lipps 4-13

Expect more of the same today. The warm temps of last week helped to form stout crusts on all but north facing upper elevation slopes. Since that time we have seen less than a foot of new snow accumulation on Turnagain Pass and closer to a foot around Girdwood. The last three days of clear and cold weather has helped to weaken the snow, particularly at the interface between these crusts and whatever new snow has fallen over the past ten days. In areas that received wind loading in the last several days these shallow slabs will be sensitive to the weight of a person today.

Avalanche Problem 2

Dry Loose

Dry Loose

Dry Loose avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

More info at Avalanche.org

Areas that have been sheltered from the wind are holding very weak loose snow. We were able to easily trigger sluffs in terrain over 40 degrees yesterday. Sluffs were relatively low in volume but were running long distances. With this in mind, it will be important to manage your sluffs today. The bigger and steeper the terrain, the greater the volume these sluffs will become. Don’t let your sluff catch up with you; turn away from moving snow, let it go past you or move faster than it to manage this problem.

With clear skies and just slightly warmer temperatures in store today, pay attention to steep slopes receiving direct sun. There is potential for shallow damp loose snow avalanches to release naturally later in the day.

Weather

Sat, April 13th, 2013

In the past 24 hours the mountains around Eastern Turnagain Arm have received no precipitation. Winds have been blowing 7mph out of the NW with gusts to 23mph at the Sunburst weather station (3,812′). Winds were stronger in certain higher elevation locations that were catching the north winds yesterday as we observed in both the Turnagain and Summit Lake areas (see photo below). Temperatures at Sunburst have averaged 6.8 degrees F.

Summit Wind loading 4-13

Look for today to be very similar to yesterday. Light to moderate winds, blowing less than 10mph out of the North may help to move around any snow available for transport. Clear skies will help to heat up sun exposed slopes later in the day. Temperatures at 1,000′ will climb into the mid to high 20s F.

A ridge of high pressure has established itself over the Bering Sea and is extending into our area. This will translate to clear skies through the weekend with temperatures rising just slightly over the next few days. Look for winds out of the north to pick up speed tomorrow.

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Wendy will issue the next advisory tomorrow morning, April 14th.

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
10/27/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	Michael Kerst
10/21/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation	Trevor Clayton
10/19/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run	Andy Moderow
10/18/24	Turnagain	Observation: Taylor Pass	Eli Neuffer
10/15/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan Common	John Sykes Forecaster
10/14/24	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	CNFAC Staff
05/13/24	Turnagain	Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South	H Thamm
05/13/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side	Amy Holman
05/12/24	Turnagain	Observation: Warm up Bowl	Tony Naciuk
05/07/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs	A S

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