Sat, March 16, 2013 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Sat, March 16th, 2013

Alpine

Above 2,500'

1 - Low

Treeline

1,000'-2,500'

1 - Low

Below Treeline

Below 1,000'

1 - Low

0 - No Rating

1 - Low

2 - Moderate

3 - Considerable

4 - High

5 - Extreme


Travel Advice	Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.	Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.	Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.	Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.	Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches	Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.	Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.	Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.	Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.	Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution	Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.	Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.	Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.	Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.	Very large avalanches in many areas.

Avalanche Problem 1

Wind Slabs

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

More info at Avalanche.org

Small pockets of wind slab were found occasionally yesterday from the 4-5 inches of new snow that fell on Thursday. Loose snow sluff in the non-wind affected snow was also common, but less of an issue if you use good sluff management technique. Wind slab is most likely found at higher elevations, below ridgetops, and in steep terrain. Both the slabs and the sluffs are shallow and low volume, so as avalanches by themselves they are not a huge concern. The bigger concern is related to the consequences of the terrain such as cliffs or no-fall zones.

Cornices remain a low probability but high consequence avalanche problem. These large overhanging features have the potential to produce the largest avalanches today. Choose your lines to avoid cornice exposure, and always give them a wide berth when traveling on ridge crests.

Avalanche Problem 2

Wet Loose

Wet Loose

Wet Loose avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

More info at Avalanche.org

It’s mid March already. The sun has some significant power that has already built a series of crusts on south facing slopes. As the temperatures rise this afternoon, wet loose snow may start to move at lower elevations on south exposures. Cold temperatures this morning may delay the wet cycle, and any cloud cover will also prevent the surface snow from warming.

Weather

Sat, March 16th, 2013

Yesterday was one of those perfect Alaska days. Today looks like more of the same. Temperatures are cold this morning, reaching negative temperatures in a few places. Most areas are comfortably in the teens. As soon as the sun hits we can expect rising temperatures for the rest of the day. Partly cloudy skies are forecasted. Wind should be almost non-existent.

We can expect a similar weather pattern for the rest of the week with no major storms on the horizon.

Wendy will issue the next advisory on Sunday, March 17th.

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
12/02/23	Turnagain	Observation: Seattle Ridge	Schauer / Keeler Forecaster
12/02/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan South Side	Anonymous
12/02/23	Turnagain	Observation: Eddies up track	Luc Mehl
12/01/23		Avalanche: Sunburst	John Sykes Forecaster
12/01/23	Turnagain	Observation: Eddie’s trees	Anonymous
12/01/23	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain – God’s Country	Graham Predeger Forecaster
11/30/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan Trees	Kakiko Ramos-Leon
11/27/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan Ridge	Schauer/ Stiassny Forecaster
11/26/23	Turnagain	Observation: Road report: Slide with dirt on Repeat offender	Anonymous
11/26/23	Turnagain	Observation: Pete’s North	Ben Sullender

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