Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast
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The Bottom Line
The hazard is CONSIDERABLE above treeline today, where human triggered avalanches are most likely in steep wind loaded starting zones. Below treeline the hazard is MODERATE, where it is still possible for skiers, riders and snowmachiners to trigger avalanches.
Deep slab avalanches continue to be our greatest concern. This most recent load of snow, while dense, is probably not enough to drastically increase the likelihood of triggering these large and destructive avalanches. The weak layers formed in October and November are now buried 4-10 feet in many areas, and are getting more difficult to impact with the weight of a person or snowmachine.
Areas to avoid today are trigger points in upper elevation starting zones, where those weak layers are only covered by 1-3 feet of slab. If you’re able to hit one of these spots, the potential for avalanches to propagate across large areas remains very high. What this means is that the chances of starting one of these avalanches is low to moderate but the consequences are very high. Human triggered deep slab avalanches in the past two weeks have produced impressive amounts of debris, and still warrant our attention.
With a gradual rise in temps over the past 2 days, we have an “upside down” scenario in the upper layers of the snowpack. Pit tests at treeline yesterday on Tincan revealed this weakness and showed potential for propagation across slopes. AKDOT was also able to trigger many avalanches around Bird Flats and Girdwood in the storm snow yesterday. While the storm snow totals were higher in these areas, the general trend of warming over the past 48 hours is similar in both places. Expect this problem to resolve itself more quickly than the deep slab problem.
In the past 24 hours Turnagain pass has received ~8″ of new snow with .8″ water. Winds have been light to moderate out of the East averaging in the teens with gusts to 49 mph. Temps at 1800′ have been around 32 with temps at ridgetops in the mid twenties.
The biggest news in weather is that the forecasted rise in temperature and heavy precip did not come to fruition on Turnagain Pass. The Girdwood Valley has seen almost twice the amount of precip in the past 24 hrs.
Look for precip to taper off today and temps to start gradually dropping with freezing levels descending to sea level by tonight.
The extended outlook calls for a break in precip later today into Tuesday with snowfall returning by midweek. Temps will be significantly cooler through the next 3 days.
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Wendy will issue the next advisory tomorrow morning, January 15th.
| Date | Region | Location | Observer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/16/21 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Seattle Ridge | Wendy Wagner Forecaster |
| 04/16/21 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Turnagain Pass, non-motorized side seen from Seattle Ridge | CNFAIC Staff Forecaster |
| 04/16/21 | Turnagain | Observation: Sunburst | Lance breeding |
| 04/15/21 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Schauer/ Rothman Forecaster |
| 04/13/21 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Obs | A Schauer Forecaster |
| 04/12/21 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Johnston-Bloom / Latosuo Forecaster |
| 04/10/21 | Turnagain | Observation: north sides | lance breeding |
| 04/09/21 | Turnagain | Observation: Girdwood to Turnagain Road Observations | W Wagner Forecaster |
| 04/05/21 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Resort bowl Seattle creek head wall | Clint Kyffin |
| 04/04/21 | Turnagain | Observation: Center Ridge | Andy Moderow |
Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us
| Area | Status | Weather & Riding Conditions |
|---|---|---|
| Glacier District | ||
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.
