Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast
A modest amount of new snow today will raise the danger rating to CONSIDERABLE for storm snow over the old persistent weak layers. Snowfall amounts and wind through the day will determine how much the avalanche danger rises. The tender wind slabs we saw over the weekend are likely to become active again today during the storm as more stress gets added to the snowpack.
Old wind slabs built last Saturday by redistribution of the snow during high wind are probably the most dangerous specific concern today. A fresh blanket of snow will make it more difficult to identify those areas that are stiffer and deeper. New storm snow today will add to the stress and make them more likely to be triggered by a skier. This problem is generally confined to above treeline on specific wind loaded features steeper than 35 degrees. Fresh wind slabs from today’s event are also likely on north and west facing slopes. Watch the snow build today and make decisions accordingly.
This storm doesn’t look very intense by our standards. However, any new weight on the weak layers from November will be cause for concern. Above and below treeline, watch for standard red flags (fresh avalanche activity, shooting cracks, whoomphing sounds, wind loading, new snowfall…). In less wind affected areas we may be dealing with more of a sluff issue than slabs, but due to bad persistent weak layers it’s still worth keeping your guard up.
NWS predictions are for 5-7 inches of snow today with SE wind gusting to 30mph at the ridges. This is similar to the expected snow amount in Anchorage today.
This storm is hitting us with a Western flow (source of the storm is in the Bering Sea), which usually doesn’t give Girdwood and Turnagain Pass as much snow as Anchorage and Hatcher Pass. We should expect some snow, but not a lot. As of this morning snow has begun, with a few inches in Girdwood already. Intensity should drop by noon today with snow showers continuing through this evening. Temperatures are expected to keep precipitation below freezing in the mountains through this storm.
This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area (this advisory does not apply to highways, railroads, or operating ski areas).
Graham will issue the next advisory Thursday morning, December 13th.
|05/22/23||Turnagain||Avalanche: Tincan||Nick D'Alessio|
|05/12/23||Turnagain||Avalanche: Tincan, Sunburst, Magnum, Cornbiscuit||Heather Thamm|
|05/07/23||Turnagain||Observation: Tincan – Bear Tracks||CNFAIC Staff|
|05/05/23||Turnagain||Observation: Seattle Ridge||AS/ WW Forecaster|
|05/02/23||Turnagain||Observation: Cornbiscuit||Schauer/ Sturgess Forecaster|
|05/02/23||Turnagain||Observation: Seward Hwy Turnagain Pass||Joel Curtis|
|04/30/23||Turnagain||Observation: Magnum||Ayla, Kit Crosby, Barton|
|04/29/23||Turnagain||Observation: Tincan||John Sykes|
|04/28/23||Turnagain||Avalanche: Taylor Pass/Pastoral||Schauer/ Creighton Forecaster|
|04/28/23||Turnagain||Avalanche: Tincan||Andy Moderow|
Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: firstname.lastname@example.org
|Area||Status||Weather & Riding Conditions|
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.