Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Clear and cold weather and total lack of recent precipitation is keeping the status quo in the backcountry.  Our thin snowpack is made entirely of weak, poorly bonded crystals.  Most of the time when we talk about weak snow like this it means big avalanche problems, but for the time being we are missing the crtitical component of a stiffer, stronger, and heavier slab on top of the weaker snow.  Steeper slopes at higher elevations may still hold pockets of avalanche potential, however.  The likelihood of trashing skis on rocks is a good limiting factor to keep in mind if you get a wild hair to start exploring onto steeper slopes.  

All this clear weather is forming abundant surface hoar on top of all the faceted snow.  It’s going to be game-on for dangerous avalanches when we finally get new snow on top of all this junky base.

Wind slab is not yet a problem as of this morning.  The National Weather Service is calling for increasing strong north winds across the region starting today.  

Remember, all we need is new stiffer snow on top of our current snowpack to complete the avalanche recipe.  Strong wind could be enough to build pockets of avalanche potential.