Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Rotten snow can be found nearly everywhere right now, and in some cases those weak facets will collapse when stressed.  The recipe that caused the recent skier triggered avalanches is relatively simple to understand.  All the October snow sat around during cold temperatures and turned to sugary facets before it got buried by subsequent storms.  Shallow, weak snow is easily triggered by the weight of a person.  If you are interested in investigating snow pits, now is a great time to look at textbook instability.  Which makes it a bad time to explore farther into the backcountry.  

On our backcountry patrols we’ve been quite conservative in our route and slope choices.  Skiing “lightly” to avoid hitting submerged rocks, and avoiding the steeper slopes is a good idea until our situation changes.  Examples of recent avalanches can be found HERE and HERE.

Besides the bulls-eye information of skier triggered avalanches, our pit tests are showing a collapsible weak layer and a tendency to propagate.  Most stability tests are showing low to moderate strength, and will propagate across an extended column when the underlying weak layer collapses.  This is very pertinent information!  When a professional guide sees evidence like this, he/she will very deliberately alter travel plans to stay on conservative lower angle terrain.  

The nature of avalanches breaking to the ground in our shallow snow situation is another good reason to stay conservative.  Taking a ride through the rocks increases the chance of major injury.

Lower elevation slopes below treeline are more stable than up high due to a slightly better snowpack structure.  Shallow snow cover in the trees will make travel challenging however, until we get more snow.