Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Good morning backcountry travelers. This is Jon Gellings with the Chugach National Forest Avalanche Information Center on Tuesday, March 8th at 7am. This will serve as a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area (this advisory does not apply to highways, railroads, or operating ski areas).

ANNOUNCEMENTS

The winner of the February drawing for public snow and avalanche observations is Matt Johnson! Congratulations and thanks for everyone who gave us their observations of the snowpack last month. Matt will receive a $100 gift certificate from his choice of our sponsors. All observers are entered for the Grand Prize at the end of this season for a new Avalanche Beacon. Each quality observation submitted is good for one chance to win.

BOTTOM LINE

Today the avalanche danger is LOW, with pockets of MODERATE. An avalanche could still break into deeper weak layers, which could create an unmanageable slide. Lingering hard wind slabs have the potential to fracture into these layers, most likely near rocky outcroppings, gullies, and on rollovers on steep wind loaded slopes. There is also a chance that new sun-triggered sluffs on South aspects could step down and break into these layers as well.

AVALANCHE DISCUSSION

Not much is happening in Turnagain Pass CNFAIC Staff than a few point releases on sun-affected slopes. A few have propagated smaller sized slabs, but these were located in Girdwood valley. This possibility exists in CNFAIC Staff areas as well, so caution is recommended when travelling under steep sunny slopes. Places for point release avalanche initiation include steep rollovers in the snowpack, rocks at the snow surface, and trees/alder sticking up through the snow.

Steep slopes with a shallow snowpack are where a person could possibly set off an avalanche. Our main concern right now is triggering one which could break into the weak faceted snow associated with early season crusts. Getting a good look at these facets requires digging in many areas, while it is on the surface in some wind scoured spots. We still have poor structure in shallow areas and regions, and this is not expected to go away until a drastic change to the snowpack happens. But until then, avoid old wind slabs that could be triggered on unsupported slopes that rollover, as well as steep shallow rocky areas and cross loaded gullies.

WEATHER ROUNDUP

Winds are not expected to become strong enough to blow snow around. Temperatures broke the freezing point on Sunburst yesterday, and likely will again today. There is no new precipitation being forecasted for today.

I will issue the next advisory tomorrow morning at 7am. If you get out in the backcountry give us a call at 754-2369 or send us your observations using the button at the top of this page. Thanks and have a great day.

The NWS weather forecast for:

WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-

INCLUDING…WHITTIER…SEWARD…GIRDWOOD…MOOSE PASS

500 AM AKST TUE MAR 8 2011

.TODAY…PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. LIGHT WINDS

EXCEPT NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH NEAR SEWARD.

.TONIGHT…CLEAR. LOWS 10 TO 25 ABOVE…COOLEST INLAND. LIGHT

WINDS EXCEPT NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH NEAR SEWARD.

.WEDNESDAY…SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. LIGHT

WINDS EXCEPT NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH NEAR SEWARD.

TEMPERATURE / PRECIPITATION

SEWARD 36 23 34 / 0 0 0

GIRDWOOD 34 14 33 / 0 0 0

WEATHER STATION SUMMARY for Turnagain Pass:

-3800′ Sunburst Wx Station-

Temperature 19 degrees. NE wind 8mph gusting to 13mph.

-2600′ Seattle Ridge Wx Station-

Temperature 22 degrees. SE wind 15mph gusting to 25mph.

-1800′ Center Ridge Wx Station-

Temperature 22 degrees. No new snow.