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The avalanche danger today is CONSIDERABLE above 2500′. New snow and increasing winds will make it likely a person could trigger a wind slab avalanche up to 2′ deep, and it is possible we will see some natural activity. Since this new snow is falling on weak surfaces, avalanches will also be possible on slopes that haven’t seen wind loading. Cautious route finding is key today, which means avoiding steep slopes, traveling one at a time, and watching partners from safe spots.
The danger will be MODERATE below 2500′, where lighter winds will make for slightly more stable conditions, but triggering an avalanche will still be possible. Be on the lookout for pockets of wind loading, especially in gullies and rollovers, and be aware of the possibility of triggering storm slab avalanches a foot deep in steep terrain.
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
After nine days of cold and clear weather, snow has returned to the area. Stations are showing .5″- 1″ of snow water equivalent (SWE) overnight, which could translate to over a foot of snow, especially at higher elevations. Another 4-6″ snow is expected during the day, with easterly winds expected to pick up to 25-30 mph, approaching 40 mph at the higher ridgetops. This active weather, combined with a mixed bag of weak, sugary facets on the old snow surface, will combine to make dangerous avalanche conditions. This will be especially true above treeline (~2500′) and close to the Turnagain arm, where winds will be the strongest.
Cautious route finding is the name of the game today, especially in the upper elevations. Wind loaded slopes below ridgelines, convexities, and in gullies will be the most suspect terrain. However, because this new snow is falling on weak surfaces, it will be important to approach all steep terrain with caution. The wind slabs that formed earlier in the week will now be much harder to identify, and since they are sitting on top of weak snow they may still be reactive. As always, be smart with your travel by only putting one person on a slope at a time and watching your partners from safe spots.
New snow and wind slabs will be forming on this poor structure. Cautious route finding will be important today. Snowpit from Raggedtop, 11.22.2021
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
This round of snow has fallen on weak surfaces, which will make it possible to trigger avalanches on slopes that have been sheltered from the wind. Weather stations are acting up this morning, so it is hard to say exactly how much snow has fallen, but best estimates based on the snow water equivalent (SWE), and by looking at the front yard this morning (see photo below) would put snow totals at a foot or more in some parts of the advisory area. This pulse of moisture will require stepping back from how we have been approaching terrain for the past week, since sheltered slopes will now require a little more attention.
Pay attention to warning signs showing instability as you travel. This will include cracks shooting out from your feet, and fresh avalanches. You might use small test slopes to see how the storm snow is behaving on top of the weak older snow. As mentioned above, play the odds in your favor by only putting one person on a slope at a time, and watch your partners from safe spots.
Dry loose avalanches: All of this low-density snow on top of loose sugar will easily move in steep terrain today. Sheltered slopes will have up to another foot of soft snow below this storm snow, which means sluffs could pick up a large volume of snow. Be aware of dry loose avalanches today, especially in higher consequence terrain above rocks, trees, cliffs, or in gullies.
Impromptu snow stake on our deck in Girdwood this morning. Very low-density snow might not be getting accurate readings at the weather stations… 11.23.2021
We have seen continued glide activity in and around the advisory area. The glide avalanches seem to have slowed down over the past few days, but we still cannot rule them out entirely. Timing of glide releases is impossible to predict, and they are very large and destructive. Be aware of these monsters, and limit the amount of time you spend traveling below glide cracks.
Yesterday: Temperatures were in the single digits to low teens, with light snow on and off during the day. Winds were light out of the north to northwest. Snowfall picked up overnight, with 6-12″ snow as of 6:00 a.m.
Today: Easterly winds are expected to pick up today, blowing 25-30 mph and approaching 40 mph in the highest terrain and near the Turnagain arm. Temperatures will get up into the mid teens F. Snow showers during the day could bring another 4-6″ snow. Overnight low temperatures will be in the single digits to low teens F.
Tomorrow: Another pulse of moisture during the day could bring another 2-4″ snow. Winds will calm to 5-10 mph by the morning, but may start to pick up again late in the afternoon and overnight. It is looking like there could be another round of snow right on the heels of this system, and there is some uncertainty as to just how much (if any) we will get. Stay tuned for more.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 3 | N/A | 1.0 | N/A |
Summit Lake (1400′) | -6 | tr | tr | 10 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 4 | 0* | 0* | N/A* |
* Station not yet reporting snow data. 10-12″ cold smoke on the ground in Girdwood as of 6:00 a.m.
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 4 | NW-NE* | 12* | 30* |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | -2 | NNE | 5-10 | 9 |
*Winds shifted from westerly to easterly and increased around 10:00 p.m. last night.
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
04/29/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Turnagain aerial obs | Tully Hamer |
04/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Johnson Pass | Noah Mery |
04/23/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Sunny Side | Travis SMITH |
04/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Bertha Creek | Anonymous |
04/20/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Spokane Creek | Schauer/ Mailly Forecaster |
04/16/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Krueger / Matthys Forecaster |
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