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The avalanche danger will rise to CONSIDERABLE as stormy weather starts to pick up during the day. Strong winds and increasing snowfall will make it likely a person will be able to trigger a wind slab avalanche up to a foot deep by the end of the day at higher elevations. Pay close attention to changing conditions, and move to lower slope angles once the storm picks up and you start seeing signs of unstable snow. Lower elevations saw little or no refreeze overnight and will likely get rain on snow later today, making wet avalanches possible. This includes wet loose, wet slab, and glide avalanches. Avoid traveling on or below steep terrain if you notice wet and unsupportable snow.
SUNDAY AVALANCHE OUTLOOK: The storm is expected to pick up overnight and continue into tomorrow, with over a foot of new snow possible at Turnagain Pass and Girdwood, and 2-3′ possible in the Portage and Placer Valleys. Expect increasing avalanche danger, especially in the areas with the heaviest snowfall. This is our final advisory of the season. We will post our springtime tips tomorrow morning, but that will not include a danger rating.
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Stormy conditions are returning to the area, with increasing winds this morning ahead of a round of precipitation that could bring over a foot of new snow to Turnagain Pass and Girdwood and 2-3′ to Portage and Placer by tomorrow morning. The avalanche danger is expected to rise as the storm progresses, and today the main factor determining stability will be the timing of the storm. Winds are currently blowing 10-20 mph out of the east with gusts to 45 mph, but are expected to pick up to 20-40 mph during the day. While the most intense precipitation will likely be overnight, we can still expect to see 3-5″ snow by the end of the day today with slightly more in Portage and Placer. Combined with the strong winds, this will be enough to make human-triggered avalanches up to a foot deep likely, especially in the upper elevations.
Today it will be important to pay attention to changing conditions and increasing danger as the storm unfolds. The most dangerous areas will be those that are getting the most snow. Avoid slopes seeing active wind loading, and move to lower angle terrain if you see any shooting cracks, fresh avalanche activity, or are experiencing any collapses.
Cornices: Strong winds and new snow will continue to build cornices and push them closer to their breaking point. Be sure to give them plenty of space while traveling along ridgelines, and limit time spent traveling under them.
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Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
The approaching storm is expected to bring rain up to 1500′ today, with rising rain levels tonight and tomorrow. Combined with a little or no overnight refreeze last night, this will make wet avalanches possible. We have seen some very large wet slabs releasing over the past week, and these things are nothing to mess with. Avoid traveling on or below steep terrain if you are noticing sloppy, unsupportable snow at the surface. The rain on snow will make avalanches possible on all aspects– unlike the recent activity, which has been mostly confined to easterly and southerly slopes. The size of some of these avalanches is downright scary, and is worth considering before traveling on or below any steep terrain.
Glide Avalanches continue to release across the area. These are large, destructive, and unpredictable. Avoid spending time under glide cracks, which open up before glide avalanches release.
Picking our way through the debris of a very large wet slab avalanche that occurred on 4/27 on Sunburst. These things are nothing to mess with! 04.29.2022
Yesterday: Skies were partly cloudy, with increasing cloud cover in the afternoon. High temperatures were in the upper 20’s to mid 40’s F, with overnight lows in the low 20’s to mid 30’s F. Winds were blowing 10-20 mph out of the east with gusts to 45 mph. no precipitation was recorded.
Today: Active weather is returning, with light rain showers this morning in Girdwood. We are looking to get around 0.2-0.8″ precipitation in Girdwood and Turnagain Pass, which will fall mostly as rain below 1500′, and should bring 2-5″ snow above that. Portage and Placer could receive closer to 0.8″ precipitation equalling 6-8″ snow at higher elevations. Winds are expected at 20-40 mph out of the east with gusts of 35-50 mph.
Tomorrow: The storm will intensify tonight, bringing over an inch of water to Girdwood and Turnagain Pass by midday tomorrow, and 2-3″ water to Portage and Placer by the end of the day. Strong easterly winds are expected to continue into tomorrow morning before starting to back down, with sustained speeds of 25-30 mph and gusts of 30-50 mph. The rain level is expected to move up to 1800-2000′, with high temperatures in the mid 30’s to low 40’s F and overnight lows back down in the mid 20’s to low 30’s F
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 39 | 0 | 0 | 95 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 37 | 0 | 0 | 26 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 38 | 0 | 0 | N/A |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 24 | ENE | 12 | 46 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 29 | SSE | 12 | 29 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
10/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Michael Kerst |
10/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation | Trevor Clayton |
10/19/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run | Andy Moderow |
10/18/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Taylor Pass | Eli Neuffer |
10/15/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | John Sykes Forecaster |
10/14/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | CNFAC Staff |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
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