Turnagain Pass
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The avalanche danger is LOW this morning and expected to rise to MODERATE as daytime heating softens surface crusts this afternoon/evening. Human triggered wet sluffs will become possible on any slope ~35 degrees or steeper that warms enough to harbor boot-top wet and saturated snow. These sluffs could be small or large and dangerous pending the terrain. Pay close attention to aspect, overhead hazard, and to changing surface conditions. Avoid being under glide cracks and give cornices a wide berth.
CROW PASS, PORTAGE VALLEY: Be cautious of summer trails that pass under/through avalanche paths, such as the Byron Glacier Trail and Crow Pass Trail. Although natural avalanches are not expected today or Wednesday, it is best practice to avoid being in any avalanche runout zone in the late afternoon/evening hours when daytime heating can destabilize snow from above.
WEDNESDAY AVALANCHE OUTLOOK: No avalanche forecast will be issued tomorrow. Expect similar to decreasing avalanche danger Wednesday. Mostly clear skies tonight should produce a solid re-freeze Wednesday morning. Cloud cover and increasing easterly winds are expected to limit the melting of crusts in most areas.
CNFAIC End Of Season Operations: Daily avalanche forecasts have ended. We will forecast today, Thursday, and Saturday morning with our Springtime Tips posted on Sunday afternoon. We would be grateful for any observations as our field time has wound down – thank you!
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Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
One more sunny day is on tap as our brilliant 11-day stretch of warm springtime weather comes to a close. The high pressure ridge that has been over Southcentral is beginning to break down. Although clear skies remain today, we should see slightly cooler temperatures and an easterly breeze along ridgelines (5-10mph). Tomorrow, Wednesday, cloud cover is forecast to head in with increasing east winds and even cooler temperatures. What this all means avalanche-wise is delayed to limited softening of surface crusts, which equals decreasing avalanche danger. Other than the unpredictable glide avalanche, the rest of our avalanche concerns are directly related to the amount of daytime heating and melting of the crusts.
The big question to answer will be, how mushy is the surface getting? Yesterday, temperatures were a bit cooler than the weekend and surfaces took an hour or two longer to soften (See Nick’s Sunday report compared with George’s report from Monday). Today and tomorrow we are expecting to continue that trend of delayed warming. With the cooler conditions, we are not expecting to see natural avalanches. However, there should be enough warming today for folks to find fun corn followed by the chance slopes get warm and saturated enough that human triggered wet avalanches become possible.
Wet Loose avalanches: Human triggered wet sluffs (or push-a-lanches) will become possible on any slope around 35 degrees or steeper that has punchy, boot-top wet slushy snow. These types of wet sluffs can be easy to identify if we are looking out for them. They could be fairly small and not a big deal, or if the terrain is steep enough, generate a large amount of mass and become quite destructive and dangerous. It’s always best not to mess around with these and once the snow starts to push easily down a slope, it’s time to move to an aspect with less warming.
Wet Slab avalanches: It remains possible to trigger a wet slab on slopes seeing significant warming, similar to wet sluffs. Wet slab avalanches occur when water penetrates and lubricates a deeper layer in snowpack. The water causes that layer to lose its strength and the snow above fails and avalanches. Wet slabs are often triggered by a wet loose avalanche and are most likely to occur in areas with a thinner snowpack, such as Summit Lake.
Cornices: The past many days of warm temperatures is causing looming cornices to slowly droop. These are most unstable in the heat of the day, but should be suspect anytime really. Remember, a cornice fall could trigger a wet avalanche on the slope below when conditions are ripe. Be aware to not accidentally travel onto one and limit any exposure under them.
Cornices along the Magnum Ridge. 4.26.21. George Creighton.
Tincan seen from the air by Aleph on Saturday. There is still a lot of snow and fun to be had at Turnagain Pass! 2.24.21.
Glide cracks continue to open up around the region. This includes areas that are commonly traveled, such as Seattle Ridge and Tincan. Keep an eye out for the ‘brown frowns’ on the mountainsides and be sure to avoid and/or limit any time under them. Glide cracks are extremely unpredictable and can avalanche at anytime – including during colder weather and when surfaces are frozen.
Glide cracks and two older glide avalanches seen on the front (road) side of Seattle Ridge. 4.26.21. George Creighton.
Older glide avalanche on the southern side of Tincan Ridge. 4.26.21. George Creighton.
Yesterday: Sunny skies with light easterly ridgetop winds (5-10mph) were over the region. Temperatures rose from near 30F in valley bottoms to 55+F through the day, while ridgetops climbed from ~35-40F to the mid 40’sF.
Today: One last full sunny day is expected today as the high pressure ridge over us breaks down to allow for moisture to move in later this week. Temperatures look to be a hair cooler today with high’s near 40F along ridgetops and in the 50’sF in valley bottoms. Ridgetop winds should remain light from the east, 5-10mph.
Tomorrow: Clouds are forecast to begin moving over the the region tomorrow afternoon with a chance for a little rain/snow on Thursday. Ridgetop winds will remain easterly tomorrow and increase into the 10-20mph range. Temperatures should stay on the cooler side with highs along the ridgelines in the mid 30’sF and mid 40’s in valley bottoms. It’s looking like a chance snow could fall as low as 1,000′ this weekend as a more active and moist weather pattern sets in.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 41 | 0 | 0 | 91 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 42 | 0 | 0 | 29 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 43 | 0 | 0 | 102 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 36 | NE | 8 | 21 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 40 | SE | 7 | 15 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
10/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Michael Kerst |
10/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation | Trevor Clayton |
10/19/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run | Andy Moderow |
10/18/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Taylor Pass | Eli Neuffer |
10/15/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | John Sykes Forecaster |
10/14/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | CNFAC Staff |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
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