Turnagain Pass
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The avalanche danger is rising to CONSIDERABLE as strong wind, rain and snow impact the region. Up to a foot of new snow could accumulate by this evening in the high terrain while rain on snow will destabilize the mid and lower elevations. Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches are likely. These will be wet snow avalanches (wet loose and wet slabs) in the mid and lower elevations and dry snow avalanches (wind slabs, storm slabs and cornice falls) in the upper elevations. Cautious route-finding is recommended for anyone venturing out in the stormy weather.
*Avalanche danger could increase to HIGH tomorrow if the storm continues to peak overnight tonight.
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Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Girdwood Valley: A large natural wet slab avalanche released yesterday evening on the lower east shoulder of Raggedtop. Note the wide propagation along the terrain. See more photos HERE.
Large wet slab avalanche that occurred yesterday evening on the lower east shoulder of Raggedtop. Photo taken by George Creighton from the Crow Creek Road 4.21.22.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
After a brilliant 12-day stretch of clear weather, a good-sized low pressure is churning south of Seward and impacting the coastal mountains. This is bringing moderate to heavy rainfall up to 1,000′ coupled with strong ridgetop east winds. Around 3-5″ of snow has fallen overnight in the high elevations but another 5-10″ is expected today with another 5-10″ overnight tonight. The rain/snow line looks to stay near or just above 1,000′.
With springtime avalanches beginning to occur and a storm to add to the equation, we can expect a variety of avalanche problems in the mountains. The largest and most destructive will be wet snow avalanches that could occur in the mid and lower elevations. Rain, or wet snow, on the existing snowpack, along with cloud cover keeping the old surface from re-freezing, will both contribute to naturally occurring wet slab and wet loose avalanches. These could be very large and scour down to the ground, as seen in the wet slab that released on Raggedtop yesterday. These types of avalanches are common in the spring when the snowpack becomes saturated and wet. It looks as though we are headed into a period of the springtime shed cycle where the snowpack is literally falling apart and we should start to see more and more avalanches like this in the coming week. Something to be extra careful for when the skies clear again.
Another photo looking up the path of a portion of the wet slab avalanche from yesterday on Raggedtop. Photo George Creighton 4.21.22.
Glide Avalanches: In addition to the wet avalanche issues, glide avalanches are occurring as well. These can look similar at times when wet avalanches scour down to the ground giving the debris a dirty look. With the mountains starting to shed their snow right now, it’s good to be extra conservative and just avoid being under any glide cracks.
Glide crack on Cornbiscuit photographed by John on Wednesday 4.20.22.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
In the higher elevations where dry snow is falling we can expect the typical wintertime storm snow avalanche problems to be forming. These are wind slabs on wind loaded slopes. They could be up to 2′ thick by this evening and very easy to trigger. Storm slabs are possible on slopes out of the wind in places where over a foot of snow piles up. And last, Cornice falls. I’d expect this storm to push some of the large cornices over the brink of failure.
This new snow is falling on a mixed bag of surfaces. On southerly facing slopes and all aspects below ~2,000′ a sun crust was present before the storm. On more shaded northerly slopes in the higher elevations there was a mix of soft snow and wind crusts with some surface hoar on top. The new snow may or may not stick to the crusts, but is most likely not going to stick that well to the loose snow and surface hoar. As with any rapid loading snowfall event, we should always be suspect of storm snow avalanches during and just after a storm. Looking ahead, once the sun comes back out all this new snow could become pretty touchy as the sun heats it up.
Sunburst 5am image of the snow storm up along the ridge. Images are found on the Sunburst weather station page HERE.
Yesterday: Mostly cloudy skies were over the area with light precipitation during the evening and overnight hours. The rain snow line was around 1,400′ with 3-5″ of snow above this. Easterly ridgetop winds increased through the day and picked up significantly overnight into the 25-35 mph range with gusts in the 50’s.
Today: This will be a stormy day with up to .5″ of rain below 1,000′ and 5-10″ of snow above this in the higher terrain. Tonight, another .5″ of rain is expected with an additional 5-10″ of snow. Ridgetop winds will remain easterly in the 25-35mph range with gusts in the 60’s. Temperatures will remain near 40F at sea level and in the mid 20’sF along ridgelines.
Tomorrow: The storm should begin to abate tomorrow with light rain and snowfall lingering. Models are showing around 3-5″ of snow could fall during the day above 1,500′. Ridgetop winds are forecast to lessen to around 15-25mph with gusts in the 30’s. Temperatures should remain in the 40’s at sea level in the mid to upper 20’sF along the ridges.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 35 | 3 | 0.3 | 105 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 34 | 0 | 0 | 35 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 34 | 1 | 0.16 | N/A |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 23 | NE | 22 | 57 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 27 | SE | 15 | 29 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
10/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Michael Kerst |
10/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation | Trevor Clayton |
10/19/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run | Andy Moderow |
10/18/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Taylor Pass | Eli Neuffer |
10/15/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | John Sykes Forecaster |
10/14/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | CNFAC Staff |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
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