Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast
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The avalanche danger will increase to MODERATE today due to several inches of new snow and increased easterly winds. Watch for shallow fresh wind slabs to form on wind loaded slopes at the higher elevations. Small sluffs in the new snow are also expected. In the lower elevations, wet loose avalanches will be possible to trigger due to wet and saturated surface snow.
SUMMIT LAKE: A much shallower snowpack exists from the Johnson Pass and Silvertip trailheads south to Summit Lake. In this area, there remains a chance a person could still trigger a larger slab avalanche due to weak snow in the mid and base of the pack. Extra caution is advised.
PORTAGE VALLEY/Byron Glacier Trail: Strong wind and additional precipitation will increase the avalanche danger in this zone. Avoid avalanche runout zones such as the Byron Glacier hiking trail up to the ice caves.
*Roof Avalanches: Heads up, roofs may still shed remaining snow with the cloudy, wet and warm weather.
We are so grateful for all those who have been submitting observations! Let us know what you see this weekend if you are getting out in the mountains. You can submit on our website HERE or shoot us an email at staff@chugachavalanche.org. Thank you!!
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Despite spring being officially underway, there is a cold(ish) winter storm headed in this morning. A wintery mix is expected below 1,000′ with a couple inches of warm snow accumulating. At the higher elevations, roughly 3-5″ of colder snow is expected. This isn’t too much of re-fresh for powder lovers, but it may improve some riding conditions. This is also not too much to drastically change the avalanche conditions, but it is likely to form some shallow wind slabs and create some sluffs in steep terrain.
Ridgetop winds have just picked up from the east and forecast to remain in the 15-25mph range with stronger gusts. That said, wind slabs are likely to form today. These should be on the shallow side, from 6″ to a foot thick. On northerly aspects they could be sitting on a layer of buried surface hoar. Slopes that do not have a sun crust may have a layer of buried surface hoar around 2-6″ below the surface. This was found on Eddies yesterday and suspect to exist in other areas. Wind slabs that form over the buried surface hoar could be a bit larger and propagate wider than expected. Quick hand pits, looking for small ‘feathers’ and easy shears is a good way to suss this out. Wind slabs on southerly aspects may be touchy as well as they will be sitting on a sun crust.
In short: The big issues to watch for are how much new snow falls and if the strong winds are blowing it (or older loose surface snow) into fresh slabs. Additionally, older small wind slabs formed a day ago could be found, as was seen on Eddies yesterday (photo below).
Dry Loose Snow avalanches: Sluffs in the drier new snow at the higher elevations will be likely. These should be on the smaller side and composed of the few inches of storm snow.
Cornices: Cornices should grow a bit today with the sticky new snow and strong winds. As always, give them a wide berth and limit exposure underneath them.
Storm Slabs: There is not quite enough snow forecast for storm slabs to form. However, if the snowfall intensifies more than predicted and over 6″ fall, watch for storm slabs on all aspects due to rapid loading.
Cracking in the snow due to a small wind slab found on Eddies ridge yesterday. 3.20.20. Photo: Joe Stock
The NW should of Magnum Ridge. This is yesterday’s surface and what any new snow will fall on today. Take a look at more images from Turnagain Pass HERE. 3.20.20. Photo: Heather Thamm
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Cloud cover overnight has trapped in the daytime warmth from yesterday. This has kept the snowpack at the lower elevations from completely re-freezing. If temperatures remain above freezing today, triggering a wet loose avalanche on these wet and saturated lower slopes will be possible. Keep this in mind in small creek beds and terrain traps in the trees.
Small wet loose avalanche triggered by a snowmachiner descending a lower elevation slope under Seattle Ridge yesterday. Note the saturated surface snow and large roller balls. 3.20.20.
Triggering a large slab avalanche that breaks in weak old faceted snow deeper in the snowpack remains a concern in areas that have a shallow overall snow depth. These areas are south of Turnagain Pass and include Johnson Pass to Silvertip area, Summit Lake and Palmer Creek. Watch for areas that have a harder wind packed layer of snow over weak sugary snow. Although it has been almost a week since the last known avalanche breaking in these weak layers, this lingering issue remains a concern.
Yesterday: Mostly sunny skies with high clouds moving in late in the day. Ridgetop winds were light and westerly. Temperatures reached 40°F at the lower elevations and 30°F along the ridgelines.
Today: Light to moderate snowfall is forecast today as a colder storm system pushes through. This flow direction favors Cook inlet through Anchorage and to Hatcher Pass, but we should squeak out 3-4″ of new snow by this evening. Up to 5-7″ could be seen at the higher elevation in favored areas. Ridgetop winds switched to easterly early this morning and will remain easterly in the 15-25mph range. Temperatures should stay in the mid 20’s°F at the higher elevations and the mid 30’s°F at sea level.
Tomorrow: The storm is expected to move out tonight and skies are on a clearing trend for Sunday through Tuesday. Another strong NW outflow wind event looks to be taking shape for Sunday and Monday. Stay tuned.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 34 | 0 | 0 | 65 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 32 | 0 | 0 | 30 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 32 | 0 | 0 | 75 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 23 | W | 7 | 34 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 27 | NW | 10 | 24 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
03/26/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Sunburst avalanche investigation | Schauer/ Cullen Forecaster |
03/26/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Magnum shoulder | Matthew Howard |
03/25/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Seattle Ridge backside – several human triggered large avalanches | CNFAIC Staff |
03/25/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Seattle Ridge, 3rd Bowl, Rider Triggered Avalanches | CNFAIC Staff |
03/25/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Pastoral | Tony Naciuk |
03/25/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Eddie’s | James Howery |
03/25/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddies lower slopes | Anna Frick Bridget Psarianos |
03/25/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Sunny Side | Peter Wadsworth |
03/24/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Sunburst/Magnum | Megan Guinn & John Sykes Forecaster |
03/23/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Magnum | Amanda Goss |
Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us
Area | Status | Weather & Riding Conditions |
---|---|---|
Glacier District |
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.