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The avalanche danger is MODERATE at all elevations. In the higher terrain and in exposed areas in the trees, watch for small newly formed wind slabs due to a bump in easterly winds last night. If found, new wind slabs will be possible trigger, yet expected to be in the 6-8″ deep range. Additionally, triggering an avalanche failing in buried weak layers 1-3’ deep is still possible on slopes 35° and steeper, including those under 1,000. Always remember to give cornices a wide berth and watch your sluff.
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
The hopes for a few inches of new snow in our forecast area today is dwindling fast… As seems to be the theme for the past 5 weeks, it is looking like more blow than snow. The front that was heading our way has stalled just to the west and stretching out along Cook Inlet currently. That said, only a few flurries are expected and maybe an inch in a favored location.
The winds on the other hand are a bit of a game changer. Ridgetop weather stations have been steady in the 15-20mph range from the east since 5pm last night with gusts near 30mph. These speeds are expected to decrease throughout the day. A report from the Magnum/Cornbiscuit area at Turnagain Pass described some ‘active wind loading’ beginning around 4pm yesterday. Although these speeds aren’t super impressive, they should be just enough to drift the 4-8″ of existing light surface snow into wind slabs. Slab thickness is likely to be in the 6-8″ range in general and up to a foot thick in the most windy zones.
Fresh Wind Slabs: The good news is, new wind slabs should be on the smaller side and easy to identify. They are likely to be in the higher terrain above treeline. Watch for areas with recent wind deposited snow and/or active loading. Smooth rounded pillow like surfaces and stiffer snow over softer snow are tell-tale signs of wind slabs, along with any cracking in the snow around you. These should be on the softer side due to the moderate winds. Slabs may be sitting on a fresh batch of surface hoar from the past several days, or on a thin sun crust on steep south slopes, making them a bit easier to trigger in this case.
This table is from the Snow Weather and Avalanche Guidelines and tells us what wind speeds begin to move snow into wind slabs.
Sluffs: Steep slopes that have been protected from the winds and the sun have 2-6” of soft snow on the surface and triggering a loose snow avalanche (sluff) is possible. Remember sluffs can gain volume and speed in steep terrain and can be dangerous if they knock you off your feet and take you for a ride in a high consequence spot.
Soft surface snow over a thin sun crust on a steep south slope.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
We continue to track two weak layers of snow (surface hoar and facets) buried in the top three feet of the snowpack. The data continues to show triggering an avalanche in one of these layers remains possible. The layers are present in most areas and at all the elevation bands. The trick is, they are not reactive everywhere. They seem to be more of an issue below 2000′. However, a persistent slab avalanche in upper elevation terrain cannot be ruled out. Triggering a recently formed wind slab or cornice fall may step down to one of these buried weak layers. Additionally, there may be older hard wind slabs sitting on top of the weak layers, allowing a person to get well out onto the slope before an avalanche initiates or an avalanche may occur after other machines or skiers have already ridden the slope. Watch for signs of instability, follow safe travel protocol and evaluate terrain consequences.
Yesterday: It was a gorgeous bluebird day over the region yesterday. Ridgetop winds started light from the east then steadily climbed through the afternoon and have been blowing overnight in the 15-20mph range with gusts in the 30’s. Temperatures were in the 20’sF at the lower elevations and teens at the higher.
Today: Partly cloudy skies, a chance for a few flurries and moderate east ridgetop winds is all this weather front looks to have in store today. The ridgetop winds are forecast to average 15-20mph from the east with stronger gusts before letting up this afternoon. Temperatures will be warmer today, climbing to the mid 30’sF at sea level and the low 20’sF in the higher terrain.
Tomorrow: Clouds are expected to linger to some degree tomorrow before skies clear up on Sunday. Ridgetop winds will swing back around to the NW and models are showing them pick up into the 15-20mph range along the ridgelines Saturday. Stronger NW outflow winds are expected down near Seward. Temperatures will remain mild, near 30F at sea level and 20F in the Alpine.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 24 | 0 | 0 | 112 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 15 | 0 | 0 | 46 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 22 | 0 | 0 | 116 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 16 | NE | 11* | 31 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 20 | SE | 9 | 20 |
*Easterly winds have been averaging 15-20mph since 5pm.
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
04/29/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Turnagain aerial obs | Tully Hamer |
04/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Johnson Pass | Noah Mery |
04/23/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Sunny Side | Travis SMITH |
04/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Bertha Creek | Anonymous |
04/20/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Spokane Creek | Schauer/ Mailly Forecaster |
04/16/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Krueger / Matthys Forecaster |
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