Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast
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Strong winds today will raise the avalanche danger to CONSIDERABLE at elevations above 2500’, where it is likely a person could trigger an avalanche in steep, wind-loaded terrain. An avalanche triggered on sensitive wind slabs near the surface may step down to multiple buried weak layers in the upper 2-3’ of the snowpack, making larger avalanches. Dangerous avalanche conditions warrant cautious route finding today, which means identifying and avoiding steep, wind-loaded slopes.
The avalanche danger remains MODERATE at elevations below 2500’, where it will be possible to trigger smaller wind slab avalanches, or avalanches failing on those weak layers in the upper snowpack.
Summit/Seward/Portage: These areas tend to see the strongest winds during these northwesterly wind events, resulting in more wind loading and increased likelihood of natural and human-triggered avalanches.
Winner Creek: Skiers triggered avalanches failing on a layer of buried facets sitting on top of a crust. The slabs were 1′ deep on average, with some pockets as deep as 3′. Some of the slabs pulled out on slope angles less than 30 degrees. Nobody was caught.
Skier-triggered avalanches failing on buried facets in the Winner Creek drainage yesterday. Photo: Mike Welch
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
We are in the midst of another northwest wind event as high pressure moves into the area. Strong winds are expected to continue through today, with sustained ridgetop speeds of 25-40 mph and the strongest winds towards the south end of Turnagain Pass. These winds will be blowing snow into sensitive slabs up to a foot deep, making it easy to trigger an avalanche on wind-loaded slopes today. These northwesterly winds often get channeled up the Sixmile creek drainage near Hope, and get funneled around the south end of Turnagain pass, resulting in strong southerly winds at mid- and lower elevations on the skier side of the pass. This makes it tricky to identify a consistent loading pattern during these wind events, since wind directions will usually change drastically with elevation.
Today it will be important to pay attention to how winds are redistributing snow. Some signs may be obvious from a distance, like wind blowing off ridgelines or across slopes, or fresh avalanche activity. Others may be more obvious immediately around you, like cracks shooting out from your machine or skis, or the feeling of a stiff, punchy slab at the surface. We saw avalanche activity during a similar wind event last Thursday (details here and here), and can expect to see more of the same today.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Multiple weak layers in the upper 3 feet of the snowpack continue to produce avalanches and show warning signs in our area. Strong winds today will place an additional load on these weak layers while building a stiffer slab on top of them, increasing the likelihood of a person triggering an avalanche. These persistent weak layers are tricky, because they have become stubborn enough that they are not always giving us direct feedback like cracking and collapsing before avalanching. But with multiple avalanches failing on these weak layers in the past few days, they are clearly still cause for concern.
These layers are widespread through our area, so navigating avalanche terrain right now requires elevated caution. If you are trying to access steep terrain (after assessing the wind slab problem mentioned above), consider the consequences of getting dragged down a slope in an avalanche. Give yourself and your partners an extra safety margin by avoiding consequential terrain above rocks, cliffs and trees, or features that will collect avalanche debris and pile it up deep. Be diligent with safe travel protocol by only exposing one person at a time to steep terrain, and watching your partners from safe locations out of the potential avalanche path and runout zones. These problems are not easy to deal with, and now is not a great time to be pushing the needle into big terrain.
Poor stability test results on a layer of buried facets from a test pit on Raggedtop yesterday.
Yesterday: Temperatures reached the mid 20’s to mid 30’s F under cloudy skies. Periodic light snowfall brought a trace of snow. Winds were light and out of the east during the day yesterday, and have shifted to the northwest around midnight.
Today: Strong northwesterly winds will return today, with sustained speeds of 25-40 mph at ridgetops. Cloud cover is expected to decrease during the day, with mostly sunny skies by this afternoon. Temperatures will drop drastically today, reaching single digits F by the afternoon and approaching 0 by tonight.
Tomorrow: Clouds build back in tomorrow with a chance of 1-2” of snow. Winds will switch back to the southeast, blowing 10-20 mph at ridgetops. High temperatures are expected in the mid teens to low 20’s F.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 30 | 0 | 0.2 | 114 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 29 | 0 | 0.1 | 44 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 29 | 0 | 0.01 | 117 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 20 | NE-NW* | 9 | 31 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 23 | SE-NW* | 8 | 32 |
*Winds shifted directions around midnight last night, with increasing speeds this morning.
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/22/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | Nick D'Alessio |
05/12/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan, Sunburst, Magnum, Cornbiscuit | Heather Thamm |
05/07/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Bear Tracks | CNFAIC Staff |
05/05/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Seattle Ridge | AS/ WW Forecaster |
05/02/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Schauer/ Sturgess Forecaster |
05/02/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Seward Hwy Turnagain Pass | Joel Curtis |
04/30/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Magnum | Ayla, Kit Crosby, Barton |
04/29/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | John Sykes |
04/28/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Taylor Pass/Pastoral | Schauer/ Creighton Forecaster |
04/28/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | Andy Moderow |
Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us
Area | Status | Weather & Riding Conditions |
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Glacier District |
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.