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Today the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE above 1,000′. Human triggered wind slab avalanches are likely on steep slopes with previous or active wind loading. If triggered, these wind slabs have the potential to overload buried weak layers and initiate a larger slab avalanche. Where wind slabs are not present, the persistent weak layers 2-3′ down are becoming more stubborn, but it still remains possible for a person to trigger a large slab avalanche on these layers.
Tonight! Soldotna Avalanche Awareness. Join CNFAIC’s Aleph Johnston-Bloom for an evening avalanche awareness chat. 6-7:30 pm at Odie’s in Soldotna. FREE! Great information for those new to recreating in the backcountry and useful review for experienced folks. Geared to all modes of travel. Hope to see you there!
Avalanche Gear in Review with CNFAIC at Black Diamond. Swing by Black Diamond in Anchorage for a discussion on avalanche rescue gear. Thursday, Feb 6th from 6-7:30pm. Free! CNFAIC forecasters Ryan Van Luit and Wendy Wagner will be there to discuss advances, common mishaps and answer any questions you may have about your own rescue gear. BYOG – Bring Your Own Gear! This is a great opportunity to test your own gear and ask questions.
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Since yesterday morning we’ve had several hours of wind near 20mph with gusts to 47mph at the Sunburst weather station. Winds as low as 12-15mph can transport low density snow. Wind slabs continue to form in wind exposed areas throughout the region. Where wind slabs exist on steeper slopes, it could be easy and likely for a human to trigger an avalanche. Although we have a warming trend, the temperatures in the Alpine have remained below freezing helping maintain loose snow. Our 3″ of new snow over night in addition to the snow from last week is still unconsolidated in most places and easily moves around with the variable winds.
It can be difficult to predict which slopes have formed wind slabs because the region has experienced winds from many different directions. It’s essential to look for clues where wind slabs are forming, or have already formed. If you see the winds depositing snow onto the lee of ridges or gullies, that’s a clear indicator a slab could be forming. Scoured exposed areas can indicate loading to the leeward side. Where visibility is low or you can’t see your entire route, remain aware of the snow beneath you – you could be entering a wind slab if you feel stiffening of the snowpack, see rippling on the surface, see shooting cracks, or sense hollow drum-like sounds in the snow. Choose routes with intention and don’t hesitate to adjust your plan.
Steady winds over the previous 30 hours capable of transporting loose snow.
This image is looking toward the northeast aspect of Magnum. The visible scouring suggests easterly winds cross loaded many gullies on Magnum. Winds from this direction could have easily loaded the common northwest uptrack. 2.3.2020 Photo: CNFAIC Archive
Cornices: Cornices continue to form and could be touchy to human trigger as they build with new snow and wind transport. As always, give cornices a wide margin.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Our snowpack structure contains weak layers formed before the storms last week. We’re particularly keeping an eye on the MLK Jr facets and the NYE crust. The incremental loading and wind transported snow naturally triggered avalanches last week – the MLK Jr facets and NYE crust were the suspected weak layers. Our testing shows these layers are becoming more stubborn but it remains possible for a human to trigger a large avalanche in these layers 2-3′ down in the snowpack. With time and our current warming trend, the chances increase for the top 2′ of snow to consolidate and become more cohesive. These conditions could create a more distinct slab above these weak layers.
Additionally, If a wind slab is triggered, it could step down to initiate one of these layers deeper within the snowpack.
Loose Snow Avalanches: On steep slopes with unconsolidated snow, watch for easily triggered loose snow sluffs.
Yesterday: Cloudy skies with scattered snow showers. Winds were easterly 10-20 mph gusting into the 40s in the morning then decreased into the evening. Temperatures were in the mid to high 20’s. Snow accumulation overnight 1-3″.
Today: Mostly cloudy skies with a high near 30°F and low around 23°F. Winds out of the Southeast from 5 -20 mph. New snow with accumulation of 2-4″ possible.
Tomorrow: Cloudy skies with a high near 32°F and lows in the teens. Intermittent snow showers expected throughout the day and into the evening adding 1-3″ of snow. Winds expected to be from the east 5 – 10 mph becoming light and variable into the evening.
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 28 | 2 | 0.2 | 58 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 28 | 1 | 0.1 | 20 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 28 | 4 | 0.31 | 56 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 18 | ENE | 16 | 47 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 23 | ESE | 11 | 26 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
10/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Michael Kerst |
10/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation | Trevor Clayton |
10/19/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run | Andy Moderow |
10/18/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Taylor Pass | Eli Neuffer |
10/15/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | John Sykes Forecaster |
10/14/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | CNFAC Staff |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
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