Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast
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The avalanche danger remains MODERATE above 1,000′. Triggering a shallow soft slab avalanche is possible where Monday’s snow is more cohesive due to past wind and/or warmer temperatures. Loose snow sluffs are expected to be easy to trigger on steep slopes. These could entrain a significant amount of snow and create a larger avalanche than expected. Although the danger is LOW below 1,000′, small sluffs are possible.
SUMMIT LAKE: This region is just out of our advisory area to the south. The snowpack is shallow and extra caution is advised for triggering a slab avalanche in buried weak layers.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Skies are clearing this morning and today should be the first good visibility day since the MLK Jr. storm on Monday. Roughly a foot of low-density snow fell in the higher alpine from that storm with a few inches of new snow from yesterday’s instability showers. Winds along the peaks have remained light over the past several days and despite the incoming cold temperatures, powder seekers are sure to get out.
With that said, the main avalanche concerns center around Monday’s snow: how well it is sticking together (forming a slab), its bonding with the old weak snow underneath, and if it’s just loose and sluffs are a concern (more on that below). Not only does a thick layer of faceted snow sit under Monday’s snow, but even older weak faceted snow sits under the wind crusts and slabs from the long dry spell. Although unlikely, an avalanche triggered in the recent storm snow could step down and pull out a deeper slab. This is most suspect in high elevation steep terrain.
How to watch for soft slabs:
Simply being observant along with quick hand pits are great ways to assess this issue. Compression tests are not always conclusive as the snow can be too soft.
Monday’s 10″ of snow on the Eddies westerly slopes. It was not quite enough to hide the old tracks from the cold/dry spell. 1.20.20. Photo: Heather Thamm.
Another shot of Monday’s snow that is still very loose and not acting like a slab in many areas. 1.20.20. Photo: Heather Thamm
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Watch your sluff on steep sustained slopes. With a foot of loose snow over another foot of loose faceted older snow, sluffs have the potential to gain volume and run further than expected. They could gouge into the older snow and end up depositing a large amount of debris. The cold temperatures that moved in overnight and forecast for the next few days will only make the snow looser and exacerbate the issue.
Cornices and Glide Cracks: As always, give cornices a wide berth and limit exposure under glide cracks.
Yesterday: Cloudy skies along with some instability snow showers were over the region. Between 3-4″ of low-density snow fell in Girdwood, Portage Valley and other favored areas while Turnagain Pass saw 1-2″ of new snow. Ridgetop winds were light and variable before turning to the northwest around midnight. Temperatures hit a high in the high teens to low 20’s°F at all elevations before cooling overnight.
Today: Mostly sunny skies are on tap for today as cold air spills in from the northwest. Temperatures have already dropped to the single digits above 3,500′ this morning and should hover near 0°F tonight. At the lower elevations, temperatures are still in the teens and should also slowly continue to cool. Ridgetop winds are light from the northwest currently and are forecast to remain light, 5-10mph, today.
Tomorrow: Cold and mostly clear sky weather is expected into the weekend. The not-so-great news is that an increase in northwest wind is forecast with an outflow wind event setting up for Thursday night through Friday. Stay tuned.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 17 | 1-2 | 0.1 | 43 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 13 | trace | trace | 16 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 15 | 2 | 0.2 | 47 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 13 | variable | 3 | 7 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 15 | variable | 2 | 9 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/22/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | Nick D'Alessio |
05/12/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan, Sunburst, Magnum, Cornbiscuit | Heather Thamm |
05/07/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Bear Tracks | CNFAIC Staff |
05/05/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Seattle Ridge | AS/ WW Forecaster |
05/02/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Schauer/ Sturgess Forecaster |
05/02/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Seward Hwy Turnagain Pass | Joel Curtis |
04/30/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Magnum | Ayla, Kit Crosby, Barton |
04/29/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | John Sykes |
04/28/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Taylor Pass/Pastoral | Schauer/ Creighton Forecaster |
04/28/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | Andy Moderow |
Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us
Area | Status | Weather & Riding Conditions |
---|---|---|
Glacier District |
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.