Turnagain Pass
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Above 2500′ the avalanche danger is MODERATE. Triggering a wind slab avalanche or a larger avalanche on a buried weak layer remains possible in the Alpine. Be on the lookout for wind affected snow and watch your sluff in steep protected terrain.
Below 2500′ the avalanche danger is LOW and normal caution is advised. As always use safe travel protocol.
SUMMIT LAKE: This region is out of our advisory area. The overall snowpack is shallower, the weak layers are more developed and the wind effect is from the recent winds is more pronounced. Extra caution is advised.
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Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
As these cold clear days continue and the wind events of last week are behind us, the likelihood of triggering an avalanche is decreasing. However, weak snow buried in our snowpack and weak facets that sit under lingering wind slabs still warrants caution in the Alpine. In fact there was a short bump in easterly wind last night that may have formed some new shallow wind slabs in certain areas. In general, signs are pointing to improving stability but as you choose where to travel keep the possibility of triggering an avalanche in mind. Wind loaded slopes are the most suspect. Regions on the periphery of our forecast zone like Crow Pass or just outside the forecast zone like Summit Lake saw more wind effect last week and extra caution is advised. Also, pay attention to potential consequences. If the slope were to slide with you on it, where would the debris pile up?
Wind effect from the past week along the eastern ridge of Lynx creek yesterday. 1.16.20.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Loose snow avalanches (sluffs): On slopes out of the wind expect sluffing in steep terrain. The surface snow is becoming very loose. The cold temperatures are turning the old powder into sugary faceted snow. There have been a few folks who have commented having ‘close calls’ with sluffs as they are heavy and can be larger than expected.
Facet sluff triggered by a skier on the steeper south face of Eddies ridge. 1.16.20. Photo: Connor Rolland
Cornices: Give cornices plenty of space and limit your exposure when passing beneath them.
Glide avalanches: Due to the unpredictable potential to release, limit your time spent under glide cracks.
A look at the snowpack from Lynx Creek yesterday. Link HERE.
Yesterday: Another clear sky day was had yesterday. Ridgetop winds increased for a brief period overnight into the 15-20mph range from the east before calming back down this morning. Temperatures were inverted with upper elevations in the 5-15°F range and valley bottoms -20 to 0°F. Overnight the inversion remained in place and winds were calm.
Today: Clear skies continue today with some clouds possibly moving in. Temperatures should be on a slight increase with valleys that are sitting near -20 to -5°F this morning climbing to 5 above by this afternoon. Upper elevations should remain above freezing and reach the high teens this afternoon. Winds are forecast to be light from the east and southeast.
Tomorrow: Clouds will continue to move in and build overnight into Monday. Temperatures are forecast to rise into the 20°Fs and there looks to be the potential for some snow in the forecast on Monday. Stay Tuned!
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 11 | 0 | 0 | 37 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | -10 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 7 | 0 | 0 | 36 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 11 | NE | 12 | 33 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 14 | SE | 5 | 12 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
10/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Michael Kerst |
10/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation | Trevor Clayton |
10/19/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run | Andy Moderow |
10/18/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Taylor Pass | Eli Neuffer |
10/15/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | John Sykes Forecaster |
10/14/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | CNFAC Staff |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
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