Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast
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The avalanche danger remains MODERATE on slopes over 35° above 1,000′. Triggering a wind slab avalanche 1-2′ thick remains possible on wind loaded steep slopes and in cross-loaded gullies. Additionally, at elevations between 1,000′ and 2,500′ there is a small chance of triggering a large avalanche (3-5′ deep) on weak snow developing near a crust.
The avalanche danger is LOW below 1,000′.
SUMMIT LAKE: In addition to wind slabs, it is still possible to trigger an avalanche on a weak layer buried mid-pack below 2500′ or near the ground above 2500′.
HAPPY NEW YEAR to all of our readers and avalanche center supporters out there!! It has been a fantastic start to the season. Cheers to bringing in 2021 with a snowpack 30% more than average and 50% more than last year!
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Blue skies, light winds and chilly temperatures are on tap for this New Year’s Day; what a great weather forecast to bring in the New Year and not to mention, we have 13 more minutes of daylight since solstice! With nothing weather-wise to increase the avalanche danger, we are looking at a few existing snowpack issues that should keep us on our toes. These are lingering wind slabs and some funny business buried in the snowpack, discussed below.
First wind slabs. Over the past 10 days the mountains have received quite a bit of wind. Winds have been from our standard easterly direction and the most recent winds that formed slabs were two days ago. Hence, wind slabs, wind crusts and scoured areas are common above treeline. With folks headed into the further reaches of the forecast zone and beyond, there are sure to be a few wind slabs that could still pop out on us. Watch for hard snow over softer snow and any cracks that shoot out from you. Wind slabs generally have a smooth rounded surface where snow has been piled up. Be suspect of these pillowed areas on the steep slopes, rollovers and in steep gullies.
In addition, on steep slopes with only loose surface snow, keep an eye on your sluff, as usual. Also, don’t trust cornices. Always give them a wide berth and limit time under them
Wind effect on Pyramid Pk at Turnagain Pass. Soft snow can be found, but there is definitely a high degree of hard wind packed snow in the Alpine zones. 12.31.20. Photo: Peter Wadsworth
Old natural wind slab avalanche in one of the Seattle Ridge headwall chutes. 12.31.20.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
As we’ve been mentioning for several days now, at the mid elevations (1,000 – 2,500′) there is the old December 1st crust that continues to degrade. It is 3-5′ below the surface and between 1-4″ thick. It is slowly metamorphosing (changing) from a strong crust into a faceted weak layer and crust combination. This is happening quicker in some areas than others. For example, we’ve found it more concerning on the non-motorized side of Turnagain Pass and in Girdwood Valley. Just yesterday, this crust/facet combo was the culprit in another large 6′ deep explosive triggered avalanche in Girdwood Valley. Although it is still unlikely a person could trigger one of these large slabs at these mid-elevations, we need to keep it on our radar. Whumpfing will be a sure sign you’ve found some weak snow beneath your feet.
A lot of folks have been getting out in the Summit Lake region to the south of our forecast area. Here, not only is this December 1st crust/facet combo a concern, but other mid-pack weak layers and even the basal facets on the ground in the Alpine continue to show weaknesses. In general, the snowpack is thinner and weaker and along with other shallow zones (Silvertip for example) it is worth keeping these old weak layers in mind before pushing into bigger terrain.
Yesterday: Mostly sunny skies were over the region. Ridgetop winds were generally light from the east (5-10mph) with a few stronger gusts. Temperatures were inverted with the clear skies- teens in valley bottoms and parking lots, with mid/upper elevations being near 20-25F.
New Year’s Day: Clear skies are on tap for the New Year. Ridgetop winds are expected to be light from the east (5-10mph). An inversion is in place this morning that should remain through the day- valley bottom temperatures are in the 10-15F range while mid and upper elevations are near 20F.
Tomorrow: Another blue sky day is forecast for Saturday with light easterly ridgetop winds and temperatures in the teens. Sunday skies remain mostly clear and winds switch to a more off-shore northwesterly flow and we’ll be watching for any increase in them. The ‘record setting’ low pressure over the Aleutians will move into the Gulf sometime early/mid-week, stay tuned!
*Ridgetop weather stations stopped reporting at midnight. We are working to get them back on line asap.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 24 | 0 | 0 | 76 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 18 | 0 | 0 | 31 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 24 | 0 | 0 | 80 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 20 | NE | 7 | 14 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 20 | SE | 5 | 11 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/22/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | Nick D'Alessio |
05/12/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan, Sunburst, Magnum, Cornbiscuit | Heather Thamm |
05/07/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Bear Tracks | CNFAIC Staff |
05/05/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Seattle Ridge | AS/ WW Forecaster |
05/02/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Schauer/ Sturgess Forecaster |
05/02/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Seward Hwy Turnagain Pass | Joel Curtis |
04/30/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Magnum | Ayla, Kit Crosby, Barton |
04/29/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | John Sykes |
04/28/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Taylor Pass/Pastoral | Schauer/ Creighton Forecaster |
04/28/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | Andy Moderow |
Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us
Area | Status | Weather & Riding Conditions |
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Glacier District |
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.