Summit & Central Kenai Mtns

Recent Avalanches: Numerous wet loose avalanches were observed Thursday, March 21 on steep southeast, south, and southwest facing slopes that occurred throughout this week of warm and sunny weather. Two of these wet loose avalanches triggered slab avalanches at about 2,600′. One small dry slab avalanche was observed at about 3,000′ on a south facing slope. Two glide avalanches were observed on Friday, March 22 , one on Gilpatrick and one on Fresno.

Weather Recap: It was a relatively quiet week of weather in Summit Pass this week. Temperatures have been averaging in the low 30’s F but climbing into the 40’s F during the day and dipping well below freezing at night. The ridgetop winds picked up last weekend for a few days from the northeast into the teens mph gusting in the 20’s and 30’s mph but have been light and variable since then. The last three days have been sunny and very spring like. The Summit Creek snotel recorded no new precipitation in the last week.

Weather Forecast: There is a small storm headed towards the Kenai Peninsula today followed by a short break on Saturday and another storm beginning Saturday evening, neither of which are forecast to produce much snow. The mountains could see a trace to 3″ of new snow by the end of the day today, March 22 with the rain line creeping up as high as 1,600′. This weekend looks to be mostly cloudy with a chance that the sun could poke out briefly either Saturday or Sunday. Temperatures are forecast to climb to 40 F during the day with low’s in the upper 20’s F. Saturday looks to be mostly dry with some very light precipitation beginning in the late evening hours. Ridgetop winds on Saturday look to be 15 to 20 mph from the southeast gusting into the 40’s mph. Sunday the mountains could see a trace to 3″ of new snow and ridgetop winds are forecast to be in the 20’s mph from the east gusting in the 40’s mph. These unsettled conditions with cloudy skies and light snow look to continue into the early part of next week.

Numerous wet loose avalanches and one slab on south facing slopes on the west ridge of Silvertip Mountain. 3.21.2024

The ridgetop winds are forecast to pick up this weekend to speeds that can move snow around and form wind slabs. Winds look to be in the teens mph on Friday, March 22 from the south, calm overnight and pick up into the teens mph again during the day on Saturday and Saturday night from the southeast. Winds could be even stronger from the east on Sunday closer to 20 mph. However, there is not very much snow available on the surface to be moved around with a variety of crusts on most aspects except directly north facing. There is also very little snow in the forecast so we think the wind slabs that could form are likely to be very small. Look for blowing snow as a clear sign that wind slabs are forming where that snow is being deposited. A small wind slab is usually a manageable problem unless it knocks you off your feet and into terrain you didn’t intent to travel.

Wet snow avalanches: With a cloudy forecast we think wet snow avalanches are unlikely this weekend. However, it doesn’t take long if the sun does poke out to quickly heat up the surface of the snow and trigger a slide especially close to rocks or vegetation on steep slopes facing the sun. Temperatures this weekend are forecast to climb to 40 degrees F during the day so the snowpack will be warming a bit despite the expected lack of sun. This time of year it is always good to be on the lookout for rapidly warming conditions whether that is from air temperature or sun.

Glide Avalanches: We have seen multiple glide cracks reappear over the past week, and two glide avalanches were observed on Friday, March 22 in the Summit area. So far this cycle is not nearly as active as the onslaught of glide avalanches we saw earlier this winter, but this is something we will be paying attention to. Glide cracks release suddenly without warning, and the timing is impossible to predict. Avoid spending any time below open glide cracks if at all possible, and move quickly one at a time if you must traverse under a glide crack.

Example of a shooting crack which is a clear sign of unstable snow from Raven’s Ridge on 2.28.2024

There are a variety of weak layers buried in the Summit Pass snowpack that we have been tracking. There is a layer of buried surface hoar about 5″ below the surface that has been found up to about 2,800′. The President’s Day crust/facet combination is about 1 to 1.5′ deep and the January facets are buried 2 to 3′ deep. Although a poor structure exists with a weak layer beneath a slab, these layers seem to be gaining strength and are not showing signs in our snowpits of being sensitive to a human trigger. All that being said, with a poor structure there is a small chance an avalanche could occur.

We do not expect any rapid changes in the weather this weekend except some wind, but this is the time of year when the sun could come out unexpectedly and warm the snowpack quickly. This rapid warming can decrease the strength of the snowpack and make it more sensitive to a human trigger. As always, even when conditions are less dangerous, we recommend safe travel protocols, which include riding one at a time in terrain above 30 degrees, watching your partners, and stopping in safe spots.