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ARCHIVED FORECAST - All forecasts expire after 24 hours from the posting date/time.
Issued
Sat, November 10th, 2018 - 7:00AM
Expires
Sun, November 11th, 2018 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
CNFAIC Staff
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

                                         2018/2019 winter avalanche season has begun!

The CNFAIC will be issuing  intermittent snow and avalanche updates  as conditions warrant through mid-November.  Daily avalanche forecasts are planned to begin on Thanksgiving weekend  – unless we see more snow and avalanche issues before this demanding an earlier start.  

*Early season folks:  Please send us your snow/avalanche reports so we can post them on our observation page. That you to all those who have  submitted  already! Simply click ‘submit observation’ under the Observation tab above. This is a huge benefit for the community and our forecasters.  Make sure to  like us on Facebook  and  follow us on Instagram  for our most up to date information.

Saturday Nov. 10th update:

There is a storm forecast to impact the region tonight into early next week as multiple low pressure systems and warm air associated with a moisture plume impact the area. Snow, rain and strong winds over the next few days will change the snowpack and may rapidly load any existing weak layers. It will be important to pay attention to changing avalanche conditions as the danger may rise quickly.

A small storm this past Wednesday night added 4-6 inches of snow in the mountains. This fell after a period of cold clear weather that faceted the late October snow and after a wind event that formed some stiff pockets of wind slab.  Above 2500′ there is an even more layered snowpack where rain from mid-October fell as snow in the Alpine.  We have already seen a few human triggered avalanches in the Alpine which are good reminders that a thin snowpack can still produce a slide.  Check out the observation page for more details. The most recently reported skier triggered avalanche occured Thursday on Tincan in Common Bowl.

Rain/snowline, the overall amounts of precipitation we receive and the intensity and duration of the wind with the storm over the next few days will dictate how the snowpack evolves. We will be keeping tabs on this. Unfortunately umbrellas might be crucial mountain gear as the rain may fall above 3000′ Sunday and as high as 5000′ into Monday. Think cold thoughts. #snowtosealevel

                                                      Storm clouds from the Lost Lake web cam Saturday afternoon

                               

                                                      Skier triggered avalanche on Tincan Thursday November 8th.  

                   

Remember to always  consider the consequences  of an avalanche, even a small wind slab can knock a person off their feet and somewhere they don’t want to go.  If you head out into the mountains be on the look out for Red Flag warnings:  

  1. Recent avalanches
  2. Cracks in the snow that shoot out from you
  3. Whumpfing (collapsing) of the snowpack
  4. Rapid changes in weather (snow/rain/wind/temperature)
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Sat, November 10th, 2018
Alpine
Above 2,500'
No Rating (0)
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
No Rating (0)
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
No Rating (0)
Avalanche risk
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Avalanche risk
No Rating (0)
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Avalanche risk
No Rating (0)
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Avalanche risk
No Rating (0)
Danger Scale:
No Rating (0)
Low (1)
Moderate (2)
Considerable (3)
High (4)
Extreme (5)
Avalanche Problem 1
  • Announcement
    Announcement

We are focusing each early season update on one of the Know Before You Go ‘GETS’.  Today’s GET is GET THE PICTURE  (Know Before You Go video link in case you haven’t seen it)

Part of GETTING THE PICTURE and key to staying safe in the backcountry is recognizing RED FLAGS. Ask yourself: Have I seen any signs of recent avalanche activity on the drive to the trail head? Have I seen any as I travel in the backcountry? Have I heard any whumphing when I step off my sled or when I am skinning or skiing? Is the snow sending out shooting cracks from my skis or in front of my machine? Is the weather changing? Is it snowing rapidly? Raining heavily? Is there a rapid rise in temperature? All these clues are saying “YOU COULD TRIGGER AN AVALANCHE TODAY”. Many avalanche accidents can be attributed to people missing clues that indicate that the snowpack is unstable. Check out this lesson on Red Flags from Avalanche.org: avalanche.org/avalanche-tutorial/red-flags

GETTING THE PICTURE also includes being able to identify avalanche terrain. Here is a quick refresher on that topic: avalanche.org/avalanche-tutorial/avalanche-terrain

 

Weather
Sat, November 10th, 2018

For weather information during these updates, see:

CNFAIC Weather Page

NWS Mountain Recreation Forecast  

Observations
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05/18/21 Turnagain Observation: Tincan Ridge
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Riding Areas
Updated Tue, June 01st, 2021

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area Status Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass
Closed
Placer River
Closed
It is packrafting and jetboat season!
Skookum Drainage
Closed
The Skookum Valley is closed to snowmachines. This closure occurs annually on April 1 as per the CNF Forest Plan.
Turnagain Pass
Closed
Closed as of June 1. 188 day season, that\'s a wrap!
Twentymile
Closed
It is packrafting and jetboat season!
Seward District
Carter Lake
Closed
Closes May 1.
Lost Lake Trail
Closed
Closes May 1.
Primrose Trail
Closed
Closes May 1.
Resurrection Pass Trail
Closed
Closed for the 2020/21 winter season. Will be open for moto use in the 21/22\\\' winter season as per the CNF Forest plan.
Snug Harbor
Closed
Closes May 16th.
South Fork Snow River Corridor
Closed
Closes May 1.
Summit Lake
Closed
Closes May 1.

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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.