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The avalanche danger will remain MODERATE due to above freezing temperatures below 2000′ where triggering a wet avalanche is possible on steep slopes. Triggering a storm slab up to a foot deep will be possible in the alpine, where winds will be actively transporting new snow as a storm moves into our area this afternoon. Cornices are unstable and could release without warming.
Portage Valley: Avalanche danger in Portage Valley will rise to CONSIDERABLE today due to heavier rain and snow forecasted for that area. Natural dry snow avalanches are possible along ridgelines and wet snow avalanches below. *Remember there are avalanche paths that can run over popular hiking areas such as Byron Glacier trail.
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
In the upper elevations, above 2500’, where drier snow exists Easterly winds 20-30mph will be actively transporting snow. In the afternoon up to 5” of new snow is possible and newly forming slabs could grow up to 12” thick on leeward features. It’s also possible that someone could trigger an older storm slab due to a slick bed surface that was buried earlier in the week. On Thursday several small human triggered avalanches were reported on Eddies and in Main Bowl on Seattle Ridge following a storm that ended Thursday morning. These slabs were pretty shallow 6-10” and the bed surface was an old melt/freeze crust. Spring time warming and sun also contributed to instability that day. Today it will be important to monitor how much new snow falls and how much snow is being transported by the wind. Shooting cracks will a clue that this new snow is tender. In Portage Valley where precipitation will be heavier natural storm slab avalanches will be possible.
This small pocket on a W aspect of Eddies was triggered by the first skier. The third skier also triggered a small pocket adjacent to this avalanche. See photo below.
A slick melt freeze crust was present prior to the storm that ended Thursday morning and one of the skiers involved reported feeling the crust bed surface.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Triggering a wet avalanche will be possible below 2500’ today where rain and wet snow will be falling. Overcast skies, light rain and above freezing temperatures have kept the snowpack wet in the mid and lower elevation bands all week. Today scattered rain showers and up to 0.3” rain/snow water equivalent is possible by this afternoon with an additional 0.5” of rain by late evening. Coastal areas will see higher amounts. Evaluate the snowpack for wet, soupy and non-cohesive snow. In places where rain is falling, avoid steep terrain if your skis or snow machine start to trench into the snow. In the mid elevations where wet snow is falling on a slick crust, wet loose avalanches will be proportional to how much snow falls today. If you’re out later into the evening wet loose avalanches could become unmanageable in a terrain trap or on a larger slope.
In Portage Valley where precipitation will be heavier today, be aware of popular hiking areas with avalanche terrain above like Byron Glacier trail. Natural wet avalanches are possible in this area. The photo below was take yesterday of lower elevations of Maynard Mountain above Portage Lake.
Cornices are starting to fall. New snow and wind will be adding additional stress today and through the weekend. Give them plenty of space and limit exposure time underneath.
Yesterday scattered showers were observed, but only trace amounts of precipitation were recorded in Girdwood and Turnagain Pass. Portage Valley recored 0.14 € of snow water equivalent in the last 24 hours. Winds were light from the East increasing to Moderate in the afternoon, 10-20mph with gusts up to 30mph. Temperatures remained above freezing in the mid and lower elevations with highs near 40F during the day. Ridgetop temperatures were in the mid 20F’s to low 30F’s. Rain/snow line was around 1500′ overnight.
Scattered rain showers will continue across our region with heavier precipitation near coastal areas later in the day. Up to 0.3 € of rain is possible by this afternoon, this means 0-5 € of snow in upper elevations. Temperatures in the mid and lower elevations will remain above freezing with rain/snow line around 2000′. High’s will be in the mid 40F’s near sea level. Tonight an additional 0.5 € rain is forecasted, 3-6 € of snow in upper elevations. Easterly ridgetop winds will be 15-30mph with gusts in the 40F’s.
Overnight rain showers will continue with a front intensifying precipitation by Sunday morning. Tomorrow expect rain in the lower elevations and snow above 2000′. Winds will be 20-40mph from the East. A series of Low pressure systems will continue to impact our region through next week. The long term forecast shows a deepening low pressure that may bring intense rain and snow into the Gulf of Alaska by Tuesday/Wednesday.
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
Center Ridge (1880′) | 36 | 0 | 0 | 64 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 36 | 0 | 0 | 22 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 35 | 0 | .07 | 59 |
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
Sunburst (3812′) | 26 | E | 8 | 30 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 30 | ESE | 15 | 31 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
04/29/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Turnagain aerial obs | Tully Hamer |
04/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Johnson Pass | Noah Mery |
04/23/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Sunny Side | Travis SMITH |
04/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Bertha Creek | Anonymous |
04/20/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Spokane Creek | Schauer/ Mailly Forecaster |
04/16/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Krueger / Matthys Forecaster |
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