Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast RSS

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ARCHIVED FORECAST - All forecasts expire after 24 hours from the posting date/time.
Issued
Wed, December 20th, 2017 - 7:00AM
Expires
Thu, December 21st, 2017 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Aleph Johnston-Bloom
The Bottom Line

A  MODERATE avalanche danger exists in the Alpine. Fresh wind slabs are possible in leeward terrain.  Additionally, on the high elevations slopes (above 3,000′) the possibility of a deep slab avalanche breaking near the ground remains a concern. Areas where the snowpack is shallower, such as on the South side of Turnagain Pass, towards Summit Lake and the Crow Pass region are the most suspect.  

The avalanche danger below 2500′ is LOW  where the snowpack is predominately thick layers of melt-freeze crust and triggering an avalanche is unlikely.  

There is no hazard below 1,000′ due to lack of snow.

*Please remember your safe travel practices! This includes, exposing one person at a time in avalanche terrain, watching your partners, being rescue ready and having an escape route planned.

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Wed, December 20th, 2017
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Moderate (2)
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Low (1)
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
No Rating (0)
Avalanche risk
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Avalanche risk
Moderate (2)
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Avalanche risk
Low (1)
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Avalanche risk
No Rating (0)
Danger Scale:
No Rating (0)
Low (1)
Moderate (2)
Considerable (3)
High (4)
Extreme (5)
Avalanche Problem 1
  • Wind Slabs
    Wind Slabs
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
More info at Avalanche.org

Yesterday 3-5″ inches of snow fell at upper elevations and winds were southeasterly, 15-25 mph gusting into the 30s. Winds shifted to the west in the evening. Observers reported pockets of reactive wind affected snow in leeward terrain. Today wind slabs are possible on steep wind loaded slopes. Look for drifting, cracking and pay attention to stiff snow under foot.  Even a small wind slab can be very dangerous in high consequence terrain.  In addition, give cornices a wide berth. They have been growing with each new snow and loading event. 

 

 

Cornices building and the leeward slopes of Hippy Bowl on Tincan. Photo: Sam Galoob, December 16th. 

Avalanche Problem 2
  • Deep Persistent Slabs
    Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.
More info at Avalanche.org

It has now been a week since the widespread natural avalanche cycle that was initiated by the warm wet storms ended. We have had no reports of human triggered avalanches since December 6th. We still do not have much snowpack data from above 3,300′ this season. What we do know is that the snowpack depth is variable and that there were large natural avalanches in upper elevation terrain during the storms in the first two weeks of December. The concern is that on slopes that did not slide in the Alpine, there is still weak snow underneath all that storm snow and that a deep slab avalanche could be triggered if you found the wrong spot. If you venture out into the higher elevations today there are a few things to keep in mind:

    – Triggering a dangerous deep slab avalanche is still possible above 3,000′ 
    – Shallow snowpack areas are most concerning (more trigger points and possibly more reactive facets). For example: the South end of Turnagain Pass, Crow Pass and Summit Lake
    – No red flags are likely to be present to indicate an unstable snowpack. It might not be the first person on the slope that triggers the avalanche. It could be the 10th. That is why deep slabs are so spooky. 

The bottom line is that we need more data on the snowpack structure above 3500′ to rule out deep slab avalanches. This picture shows the basal structure we are concerned may still be lurking under feet of snow at upper elevations. 

 

Weather
Wed, December 20th, 2017

Yesterday was cloudy and there were snow showers on and off throughout the day. 3-5″ fell at upper elevations. There was brief sleet/drizzle later in the day below 500′. Winds were easterly during the day and shifted to the west in the evening. Wind speeds averaged 15-25 mph and gusted into the 30s. Temperatures were in the low 30Fs at sea level and the low 20Fs at ridge-tops.  

Today is will be partly sunny with a slight chance of snow showers in the am. Westerly winds will be light. Temperatures will cool into the low 20Fs today and dip into the teens tonight.

Tomorrow will be sunny with temperatures in the low 20Fs and light southerly winds increasing in the late afternoon. Friday will be mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. The next storm system looks to impact the area over the weekend. There is some hope that it won’t be too warm but there is still some uncertainty. Here are the last few sentences of the NWS discussion this morning; “Behind this low is some significant cold air, which  brings a chance for snow for all portions of the forecast area  before Christmas Day. Either way, the forecast looks to be messy  for the weekend before a return to more seasonable weather early  next week.”  Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!

* Sunburst weather station is down due to loss of battery power.

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Snow (in) Water (in) Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′) 27    0 0   32  
Summit Lake (1400′)  27 3 .3  12
Alyeska Mid (1700′) 28   3    .3  29

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Wind Dir Wind Avg (mph) Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′) *n/a   *n/a   *n/a   *n/a  
Seattle Ridge (2400′)  22 SE-W    16  37
Observations
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Date Region Location
12/04/19 Turnagain Observation: Sunburst
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Riding Areas
Updated Mon, December 02nd, 2019

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area Status Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass
Closed
Closed.
Placer River
Closed
Closed.
Skookum Drainage
Closed
Closed.
Turnagain Pass
Closed
Closed.
Twentymile
Closed
Closed.
Seward District
Carter Lake
Closed
Closed.
Lost Lake Trail
Closed
Closed.
Primrose Trail
Closed
Closed.
Resurrection Pass Trail
Closed
Closed. Will be open for the 2019/20 season pending adequate snow cover.
Snug Harbor
Closed
Closed.
South Fork Snow River Corridor
Closed
Closed.
Summit Lake
Closed
Closed.

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