|Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
|Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
|Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.
|Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.
|Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
|Likelihood of Avalanches
|Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.
|Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.
|Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.
|Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.
|Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
|Avalanche Size and Distribution
|Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.
|Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.
|Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.
|Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.
|Very large avalanches in many areas.
Sunshine and warmer temperatures are on tap. After 11 days of clear skies and cold single digit temperatures, today is expected to be the warmest day since the Northwest winds ripped though during the end of February. Winds are slated to be calm to light from the South and should let the sun do its thing on East, South and West aspects – meaning warm things up to the 20’sF or higher. Keep a close eye on any warming taking place on the snow surface. Soft snow still sits on many slopes and roller balls and wet loose avalanches could occur in these areas. Slopes with old sun crusts or wind slabs/crusts will take much more than the warming today to effect.
Other things to keep in mind if you are headed to the mountains to enjoy these long sunny days:
Glide cracks continue to slowly open above popular terrain on Seattle Ridge and in other areas of the advisory area. These could release at any time, watch for these cracks and avoid being under them.
Old and hard winds slabs are easy to find but for the most part they are locked into place. Steep rocky areas, where they are not supported from below, will be the most suspect zones for someone to pop one out.
Loose Snow Avalanches (Sluffs):
Watch your sluff. Dry sluffs on steep slopes are probable and are getting larger by the day. And, as mentioned above, wet loose (or damp) sluffs, both natural and human triggered, may occur.
Cornices may start to loosen with the warming – as always, give these monsters a wide berth from above and limit exposure time traveling underneath.
Persistent Slabs and Deep Slabs:
There are various weak layers in our thin snowpack. Buried surface hoar sits 1-3+’ below the surface and faceted snow sits in the mid and base of the pack. These weak layers with varying degrees of strength are in a dormant stage due to plenty of time to adjust with a lack of changing weather. Although this means the layers are not producing avalanches, it doesn’t mean an outlier can’t occur which could cause a large avalanche breaking deeper in the pack.
The most interesting glide crack of the season sits just to the looker’s left of the motoroized up track. We are following this one closely to see if and when it will releases.
A look at Tincan Ridge from the motorized side of the road. Sun crusts are becomming more prevolent, although plenty of soft ‘recycled powder’ is still to be found.
A quick look at the Turnagain Pass snowpack from the Center Ridge SNOTEL site. Our snowpack is just over half of normal for this time of year.
Sunny skies were over the area yesterday (the 11th day in a row for brilliant sunny skies!). Ridgetop winds were light from the North. Temperatures climbed from around 10F to 15F overnight and sit warmer than they have been for 12 days! That said, an inversion is in place this morning with valley bottoms -10F to 0F.
For today, sunshine and calm winds should warm up the lower elevations to the mid 20’sF, ridgetops should warm as well into the 20’s. It should be a day for sunscreen instead of balaclavas. Ridgetop winds are expected to be around 5mph from the South.
The weekend looks to be similar with sunny skies and warm afternoon temperatures – the ‘nocturnal inversion‘ will likely keep overnight temperatures cold. There is hit for snow in the long term forecast the middle of next week….cross your fingers!
|Temp Avg (F)
|Snow Depth (in)
|Center Ridge (1880′)
|Summit Lake (1400′)
|Alyeska Mid (1700′)
|Temp Avg (F)
|Wind Avg (mph)
|Wind Gust (mph)
|Seattle Ridge (2400′)
|Observation: Kickstep NE Bowl
|Observation: TinCan Backdoor/ Center Ridge
|AAS L1 Turnagain
|Avalanche: Lynx Creek
|Observation: Turnagain, Seattle, Mt Ascension
|Silverton Mountain Guides
|Observation: Tincan Trees
|Dalpes/Thamm/ Schauer Forecaster
|Observation: Seward Highway across from Johnson Pass TH
|Avalanche: Base of Seattle Ridge
|Troy Tempel, Thomas Lees, .Josh Bollaert, Damian Naquin
|Observation: Lynx creek