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ARCHIVED FORECAST - All forecasts expire after 24 hours from the posting date/time.
Issued
Wed, March 8th, 2017 - 7:00AM
Expires
Thu, March 9th, 2017 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Wendy Wagner
The Bottom Line

A LOW  avalanche danger remains in the backcountry  at all elevations. Although this means triggering an avalanche is unlikely, it is not impossible and concerns are: triggering an old hard wind slab in steep rocky terrain, loose snow sluffs on steep slopes with soft snow and cornice falls. The glide cracks on Seattle Ridge continue to open – these can release at any time and limiting exposure under them is recommended.

Remember that good travel habits remain important, even during ‘green light conditions’. This includes exposing only one person at a time on a slope, watching your partners closely and having an escape route planned in case the snow moves.  

Summit Lake area:  A thinner snowpack exists with a poor structure and heightened avalanche danger remains in this zone.  Please see  the Saturday Summit Summary  HERE.

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Wed, March 8th, 2017
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Low (1)
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Low (1)
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Low (1)
Avalanche risk
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Avalanche risk
Low (1)
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Avalanche risk
Low (1)
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Avalanche risk
Low (1)
Danger Scale:
No Rating (0)
Low (1)
Moderate (2)
Considerable (3)
High (4)
Extreme (5)
Avalanche Problem 1
  • Normal Caution
    Normal Caution
Normal Caution
Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.
More info at Avalanche.org

Another day of brilliant sunny skies and cold temperatures is on tap – Marvelous March. Winds are slated to remain mostly light, possibly getting up to moderate (15mph) along some ridgelines from the North. It is that time of year where longer days can be had in the backcountry. As we often say at times of low avalanche danger, Low doesn’t mean No. And this should remain in the minds of all of us getting out into the steep terrain. Snow is a complex thing and it seems once we let our guard down, something happens. So, keep up your safe travel habits and always watch for changes in the snowpack as well as weather. Below are the ‘Normal Caution’ concerns that underscore the current green conditions: 

Glide Avalanches:
Glide cracks continue to slowly open above popular terrain on Seattle Ridge and in other areas of the advisory area. These could release at any time, watch for these cracks and avoid being under them, photo below.

Wind Slabs:
Old and hard winds slabs are easy to find but for the most part they are locked into place. Steep rocky areas, where they are not supported from below, will be the most suspect zones for someone to pop one out. These areas are also where slabs are likely sitting on weak faceted snow. Even a small wind slab can have big consequences if a person is knocked over cliffs or down steep terrain. Watch for hard snow over weak loose snow as well as shooting cracks and whumphing noises. 

Loose Snow (Sluffs):
Watch your sluff. Dry sluffs on steep slopes are probable and are getting larger by the day. Althought many steep South slopes have a sun crust, a slight change in aspect still sports soft snow and sluff concerns. 

Cornices:
Cornices should always be given a wide berth from above and limit exposure time traveling underneath.

Persistent Slabs and Deep Slabs: 
There are various weak layers in our thin snowpack. Buried surface hoar sits 1-3+’ below the surface and faceted snow sits in the mid and base of the pack. These weak layers with varying degrees of strength are in a dormant stage due to plenty of time to adjust with a lack of chaging weather. Although this means the layers are not producing avalanches, it doesn’t mean an outlier can’t occur which could cause a large avalanche breaking deeper in the pack. 

Opening glide crack to the looker’s left of the snowmachine up-track on Seattle Ridge (apologize for poor image quality, but hopefully you get the idea).

 

 

Weather
Wed, March 8th, 2017

Sunny skies were again over the region. Ridgetop winds bumped up slightly yesterday, up to 10-15mph from the North and West. Temperatures were cold again, starting off at all elevations in the single digits and warming into the teens and lower 20’sF at the lower elevations. Portage is reading -10F this morning, burrr.

Sunny and cold weather will dominate again today. Daytime warming should let the unseasonably cold temperatures warm up into the teens and 20’sF in the lower elevations. Ridgetop winds are expected to be in the 5-15mph range with stronger gusts from the North. Winds could increase to 20-25mph by tonight.

The impressive blocking high-pressure bringing these cold and clear conditions looks to remain entrenched over us into the early part of next week.  

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Snow (in) Water (in) Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′) 5   0   0   61  
Summit Lake (1400′) 2   0   0   29  
Alyeska Mid (1700′) 7   0   0   57  

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Wind Dir Wind Avg (mph) Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′) 3   W   8   22  
Seattle Ridge (2400′) 4   NW   5   17  
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Riding Areas
Updated Wed, December 11th, 2019

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area Status Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass
Closed
Closed.
Placer River
Closed
Closed.
Skookum Drainage
Closed
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Turnagain Pass
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Twentymile
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Closed.
Seward District
Carter Lake
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Lost Lake Trail
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Primrose Trail
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Closed.
Resurrection Pass Trail
Closed
Closed. Will be open for the 2019/20 season pending adequate snow cover.
Snug Harbor
Closed
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South Fork Snow River Corridor
Closed
Closed.
Summit Lake
Closed
Closed.

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