Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Glide avalanches continue to be the primary concern in the mid elevations extending as high as 3000′. Many large glides have released this week leaving Turnagain Pass covered in dirty brown streaks.  New glide avalanches were reported in both the Girdwood Valley, Seattle creek drainage and Seattle ridge overnight (see below), leaving us no doubt that this is still a very dangerous avalanche problem.  Seattle ridge just above the Seward highway appears to be the epicenter of Glide activity, and still harbors large cracks that have yet to release.  If travelling in the vicinity of glide cracks today, travel fast and limit your exposure time or better yet, avoid cracks and runout zones all together.

‘Repeat Offender’ slide path as seen from the DOT RWIS camera this morning.  A large crack failed (and avalanched) overnight near or possibly covering the common snowmachine up-track.  There is still a lot of well-travelled terrain threatened by glide cracks that have not avalanched yet.

Warming daytime temperatures and direct sun today will increase the likelihood of wet avalanches in the afternoon below 3,000′.  It’ll be prudent to keep an eye on your boot penetration throughout the day.  Stay off of steep slopes (greater than 35 degrees) where you are post holing up to your crotch.  Boot penetration is an informal test, but it does give a good idea of just how deep the ‘rot’ goes.  Yesterday afternoon, the surface was unsupportable up to at least 2,200’ and likely higher.  Any wet loose avalanches triggered today are likely to be on the smaller scale but could prove troublesome if coupled with a terrain trap.  Formation of fresh roller balls will be a good clue that the surface is losing strength and a good indicator of wet avalanche activity on steep slopes.  

Roller balls forming late in the day often act as a precurser to wet avalanche activity.

Moderate easterly winds and intermittent snow showers over the last several days have built shallow wind slabs (12-18”) in the alpine.  Given the firm melt-freeze crust deposited to ridgetop last week, these shallow wind slabs have potential to be touchy in steep, unsupported terrain.

Cornices:  They continue to cling to ridges.  Likely triggers today could take the form of skiers, snowmachiners or warming temperatures and direct sun.  Stay well away from the edge of corniced ridges as these have a tendency to break much further back than you may expect.