Sun, March 20, 2016 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Sun, March 20th, 2016

Alpine

Above 2,500'

3 - Considerable

Treeline

1,000'-2,500'

3 - Considerable

Below Treeline

Below 1,000'

0 - No Rating

1 - Low

2 - Moderate

3 - Considerable

4 - High

5 - Extreme


Travel Advice	Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.	Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.	Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.	Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.	Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches	Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.	Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.	Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.	Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.	Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution	Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.	Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.	Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.	Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.	Very large avalanches in many areas.

Avalanche Problem 1

Storm Slabs

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

More info at Avalanche.org

After a week of mostly quiet weather, yesterday ushered in the first – of what looks like a couple – storm systems slated to head our way. Over the past 24-hours the mountains surrounding Turnagain Pass have seen between 8 and 12″ of snow. The storm started out cold with snow to sea level but warm air is arriving and the rain/snow line is now around 1,000′. The cold start to this storm created low density snow and sluffing was the only form of instability seen yesterday. In fact, we had a report of natural sluffs releasing off the Easterly steep slopes near the Byron Glacier trail in Portage Valley.

STORM SLAB:
The low density snow from yesterday is a thing of the past, with a rising rain/snow line and warm temperatures. The 2-3″ of snow that fell last night is expected to be heavy and the additional 6-10″ of snow for today will be even heaver as the rain/snow line is forecast to rise to 2,000′. This is a text-book ‘upside-down’ storm event. This means heavier snow is falling on lighter snow creating a ‘storm slab’ (slab over a weak layer). The weak layer in this case being the light snow from yesterday and slab thickness will depend on how much snow has fallen since last night and through today. This could be anywhere between 5 and 12″. These storm slabs are expected to be on the shallow side at Turnagain Pass but could be much larger in places favored by the storm.

WIND SLAB:
With winds picking up to the 20-40mph range we can expect wind slabs to be forming on leeward slopes. These have the potential to release naturally. They will be thicker than the storm slab, in the 1-2′ range and likely easy to trigger. Travel on wind-loaded slopes is not recommended.

CORNICES:
Cornices will be building today and could fall off naturally. Steer clear of slopes, even mellow slopes, under cornices.

Avalanche Problem 2

Glide Avalanches

Glide Avalanches

Glide Avalanches are the release of the entire snow cover as a result of gliding over the ground. Glide avalanches can be composed of wet, moist, or almost entirely dry snow. They typically occur in very specific paths, where the slope is steep enough and the ground surface is relatively smooth. They are often proceeded by full depth cracks (glide cracks), though the time between the appearance of a crack and an avalanche can vary between seconds and months. Glide avalanches are unlikely to be triggered by a person, are nearly impossible to forecast, and thus pose a hazard that is extremely difficult to manage.

More info at Avalanche.org

Glide cracks continue to be a concern as they may release and avalanche without warning throughout the forecast region. Keep in mind cracks may be buried by the new snow and will be difficult to see. These cracks cover all aspects within the mid elevation band (between 1000-3000’) and remain a significant threat to popular terrain. As long as glide cracks continue to open up, move and release, we will stress the importance of avoiding them.

Photo below is of a glide crack from the Silvertip drainage on Friday, March 18th – credit Billy Finley.

Weather

Sun, March 20th, 2016

Yesterday, a region-wide snowfall event occurred over most of Southcentral Alaska with the Turnagain Pass area seeing 8-10″ by the late afternoon. Temperatures were cold enough for snow to sea level but have warmed overnight, as of 6am the rain/snow line has risen to ~1,000′ with an additional 2-3″ of snow. Ridgetop winds were light yesterday but have risen overnight as well, averaging 20-25mph with gusts in the 50’s from the East.

Today, the storm will continue. We are expecting another 6-10″ of snow (heavy snow) with a rain/snow line rising has high as 2,000′ (.8″ of rain at the lower elevations). Ridgetop winds should remain strong out of the East averaging 25-40mph. Temperatures are expected to climb to 37F at 1,000′ and the upper 20’sF along the ridgetops.

For tonight, this storm should slowly move out – we could see another 3-5″ at the upper elevations with continued warm temperatures. Monday and Tuesday will be a slight break in weather (light snowfall and breezy winds) before another very large system looks to move in for Wednesday.

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Snow (in)	Water (in)	Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′)	28	8	0.5	139
Summit Lake (1400′)	24	7	0.5	50
Alyeska Mid (1700′)	27	6	N/A	113

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Wind Dir	Wind Avg (mph)	Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′)	23	NE	17	56
Seattle Ridge (2400′)	22	SE	15	52

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
10/27/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	Michael Kerst
10/21/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation	Trevor Clayton
10/19/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run	Andy Moderow
10/18/24	Turnagain	Observation: Taylor Pass	Eli Neuffer
10/15/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan Common	John Sykes Forecaster
10/14/24	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	CNFAC Staff
05/13/24	Turnagain	Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South	H Thamm
05/13/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side	Amy Holman
05/12/24	Turnagain	Observation: Warm up Bowl	Tony Naciuk
05/07/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs	A S

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