Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast RSS

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ARCHIVED FORECAST - All forecasts expire after 24 hours from the posting date/time.
Issued
Tue, December 1st, 2015 - 7:00AM
Expires
Wed, December 2nd, 2015 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Wendy Wagner
The Bottom Line

A  MODERATE  avalanche danger exists in the upper elevations of the advisory area. Human triggered avalanches may be possible in steep, wind-loaded terrain above 2500′. Practice safe travel techniques and ease into terrain one at a time, look for signs of instability before committing to steep slopes greater than 35 degrees.

Below 2500′ the danger is LOW where the snowpack is freezing after being saturated over the past several week.

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Tue, December 1st, 2015
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Moderate (2)
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Low (1)
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
No Rating (0)
Avalanche risk
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Avalanche risk
Moderate (2)
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Avalanche risk
Low (1)
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Avalanche risk
No Rating (0)
Danger Scale:
No Rating (0)
Low (1)
Moderate (2)
Considerable (3)
High (4)
Extreme (5)
Avalanche Problem 1
  • Wind Slabs
    Wind Slabs
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
More info at Avalanche.org

Upper elevation slopes that harbor dry and crust-free snow after Thanksgiving’s onslaught are the areas most suspect for triggering an avalanche. These slopes are also where most of us are looking to ride and sit at elevations over 2,500′. If you are headed out today (we may see clearing skies…?) there are two things to keep in mind:

1-  A bump in wind from the Northeast last night may have created shallow wind slabs just off the ridgelines. These should be easy to identify by keeping an eye on the surface texture and looking for areas of stiff wind deposited snow. Quick hand pits can help assess the reactivity of any slabs found.

2-  In general we have little information for terrain over 3,000′. What we do know is 2-4′ of ‘Thanksgiving’ snow sits on top a variety of old surfaces, one of these being a layer of small facets near the ground. With the lack of natural avalanche activity during last week’s storm cycle and snow pits showing stable snow at 3,000′, plus four days now since the end of the storm, all signs point to a stabilizing pack. However, caution is still warranted as an avalanche breaking in the facets near the ground would be large. Don’t forget your safe travel practices if venturing onto steep committing terrain, namely, only expose one person at a time and watch your partners carefully.

Terrain below 2,500′:

Rain that fell last week has now frozen and a crust exists under 2-6″ of new snow; dust-on-crust riding conditions. Freezing of the snowpack has stabilized these lower elevations. We did get a report yesterday of a large avalanche that was spotted in the Tincan Trees area – suspected start zone is above treeline and under the CFR ridgeline (2,500′). The slide is suspected to have occurred sometime late Sunday or early Monday. If you have any information about this avalanche please let us know!

Photo below of the CFR avalanche (credit: Ray Koleser).

 

Weather
Tue, December 1st, 2015

Cloudy skies covered the region yesterday and instability showers dropped a few more inches of snow above 1,000′; light ‘freezing’ rain at sea level. Winds were light from the NE and temperatures remained mild.

Overnight, winds picked up slightly from the Northeast with averages in the 10-20mph range and a peak gust at Sunburst of 41mph. These have decreased this morning. Temperatures continue to be mild (ridgetop mid-20’s F), yet cooler air has just begun filtering in from the Northeast. We may see a few more instability showers again today intermixed with clearing skies.

Another shot for a few inches of snow will come tomorrow as a pulse of moisture is pushed in by a low-pressure system in the Gulf.

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Snow (in) Water (in) Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′) 29   2   0.2 24  
Summit Lake (1400′) 30   0   0   10  
Alyeska Mid (1700′) 32   2   0.1   17  

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Wind Dir Wind Avg (mph) Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′) 24    ENE 13   41  
Seattle Ridge (2400′) 24 N/A   N/A   N/A  
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Riding Areas
Updated Wed, December 11th, 2019

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area Status Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass
Closed
Closed.
Placer River
Closed
Closed.
Skookum Drainage
Closed
Closed.
Turnagain Pass
Closed
Closed.
Twentymile
Closed
Closed.
Seward District
Carter Lake
Closed
Closed.
Lost Lake Trail
Closed
Closed.
Primrose Trail
Closed
Closed.
Resurrection Pass Trail
Closed
Closed. Will be open for the 2019/20 season pending adequate snow cover.
Snug Harbor
Closed
Closed.
South Fork Snow River Corridor
Closed
Closed.
Summit Lake
Closed
Closed.

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