|Travel Advice||Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.||Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.||Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.||Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.||Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.|
|Likelihood of Avalanches||Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.||Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.||Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.||Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.||Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.|
|Avalanche Size and Distribution||Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.||Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.||Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.||Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.||Very large avalanches in many areas.|
Up to 4 inches of new snow combined with 20-30 mph ridgetops winds from the Northeast are expected today. This will continue to make human triggered slab avalanches likely on steeper slopes.
Two days ago a storm left 2’ of new snow blanketing all of Turnagain Pass to the roadside. This slab is sitting on a weak layer of faceted snow that exists both in the Alpine and at Treeline. Yesterday conditions were very tender and a handful of slab avalanches released naturally due to unusually warm temperatures on sun-affected aspects (East and South facing slopes.) Two separate skier triggered slabs were observed on Tincan below 2500’. One of these incidents was remotely triggered causing a large pocket 200’ wide to run about 500’ down the slope.
Today avoid all steep slopes, even small ones with terrain traps below. Remotely triggered avalanches are possible and it will be extra important to not put yourself in the run-out of a steep slope, especially if other backcountry users are in the area. Obvious signs of instability like collapsing and recent avalanche activity will be additional reminders today to keep it mellow!
Yesterday was a classic example of why CONSIDERABLE is the most dangerous rating for humans. 2’ of fresh powder followed by a sunny warm day and multiple parties pushing slope angles into steeper terrain. The photo below is of a remotely triggered slab avalanche on a WSW aspect of Tincan. Luckily no one was caught or injured.
Ridgetops winds from the Northeast are expected to be moderate 20-35 mph throughout the day. Windslabs 4-8” are possible on leeward aspects of terrain features. These wind slabs are an additional reason to stay off of steeper terrain while small bursts of precipiation and wind move through Southcentral Alaska over the next two days.
Yesterday skies became clear and temperatures were in the mid 40’s F at lower elevations. At ridgetops temps stayed cooler, mid 20’s F and winds were light 10-20 mph from the ENE. No new precipitation was recorded.
Overnight cloud cover kept temperatures on the warmer side, above freezing at lower elevations. Ridgetops remained in the mid 20’s F. Winds picked up along ridgetops and Sunburst was averaging mid 20’s mph from the ENE since 1am.
A low pressure centered over the Alaskan Peninsula is set up nicely to send several bursts of precipitation to Southcentral Alaska over the next two days. Expect warm temperatures, mid to high 30’s F near sea level. Rain/snow line should be near 500′. Today 4 € is expected to fall at higher elevations with an additional 2-3 € later in the evening. Ridgetop winds will be moderate 20-30 mph from the NE.
*Wind data was only available at Seattle Ridge Wx station after 12am.
|Temp Avg (F)||Snow (in)||Water (in)||Snow Depth (in)|
|Center Ridge (1880′)||35||0||0||57|
|Summit Lake (1400′)||31||0||0||16|
|Alyeska Mid (1700′)||34||trace||.01||37|
|Temp Avg (F)||Wind Dir||Wind Avg (mph)||Wind Gust (mph)|
|Seattle Ridge (2400′)||28||*N||*11||*28|
|11/27/23||Turnagain||Avalanche: Tincan Ridge||Schauer/ Stiassny Forecaster|
|11/26/23||Turnagain||Observation: Road report: Slide with dirt on Repeat offender||Anonymous|
|11/26/23||Turnagain||Observation: Pete’s North||Ben Sullender|
|11/25/23||Turnagain||Observation: Tincan trees||John Sykes Forecaster|
|11/21/23||Observation: Spokane Creek||John Sykes Forecaster|
|11/19/23||Turnagain||Observation: Magnum – PMS Bowl||Schauer/ Cullen/ Jonas Forecaster|
|11/19/23||Other Regions||Observation: Sunnyside/Penguin||Jose Ramos-Leon|
|11/19/23||Turnagain||Observation: Eddies||Andy Moderow|