Wed, February 25, 2015 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Wed, February 25th, 2015

Alpine
Above 2,500'

Considerable (3)

Treeline
1,000'-2,500'

Moderate (2)

Below Treeline
Below 1,000'

No Rating (0)

Alpine Above 2,500'		Considerable (3)
Treeline 1,000'-2,500'		Moderate (2)
Below Treeline Below 1,000'		No Rating (0)

Danger Scale:

No Rating (0)

Low (1)

Moderate (2)

Considerable (3)

High (4)

Extreme (5)

Avalanche Problem 1

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

More info at Avalanche.org

Yesterday was the first day of clear sunny weather following a warm and wet weekend of rain to 2500’ and 3-6” of new snow at higher elevations. Cooler temperatures have created a crust layer along the surface that is adding strength to the snowpack at mid elevations. Above 2700’ where this surface crust does not exist a softer slab 1-3’ thick is sitting on a widespread layer of facets.

This new snow looks very much like the classic Maritime snow we so often associate with stable conditions, but lurking below is an already stressed weak layer + thick slab that formed on Feb.16.

We currently don’t have a lot of information about how much force it will take to trigger an avalanche in the upper elevations. What we do know is that the weak layer is widespread throughout the region and test pit scores are showing moderate strength with high propagation potential. Meaning – if a slab is triggered an avalanche of its size is likely to have high consequences. This is why the danger for the Alpine will remain at CONSIDERABLE for today.

As we move away from this most recent loading event obvious signs like collapsing and shooting cracks will become less common. This could be deceiving because this also means that the weak layer will become harder and harder to trigger yet the consequences will remain high for awhile. This is a good reminder to be patient and stay off of steep slopes until conditions become more stable.

This is a picture of the surface crust at 2000′ on Sunburst yesterday. This crust gradally gets thinner as you gain elevation and disappears completely at 2700′.

Weather

Wed, February 25th, 2015

Yesterday morning a trace of new snow fell at Turnagain Pass, just enough to cover the bare ground for a few hours before mid day temperatures (low 30’s F) melted most of it away. At higher elevations temperatures stayed in the mid 20’s F and North winds averaged 5-15mph along ridgetops. Skies were sunny and with thin cloud cover later in the day.

Overnight temperatures remained in the low to mid 20’s F. Ridgetop winds were from the North and averaged 5-15 mph. No new precipitation was recorded.

Today light cloud cover and patchy fog will become mostly clear by this afternoon. Temperatures will be in the 20’s F and are likely to increase into the low 30’s F mid day with sunny skies. Ridgetop winds should remain light to moderate from the North, but winds are expected to increase near Whittier throughout the day into the evening.

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Snow (in)	Water (in)	Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′)	29	trace	.01	40
Summit Lake (1400′)	29	0	0	6
Alyeska Mid (1700′)	30	trace	.04	23

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Wind Dir	Wind Avg (mph)	Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′)	21	N/A	N/A	N/A
Seattle Ridge (2400′)	24	NNW	9	21

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
05/22/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	Nick D'Alessio
05/12/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan, Sunburst, Magnum, Cornbiscuit	Heather Thamm
05/07/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan – Bear Tracks	CNFAIC Staff
05/05/23	Turnagain	Observation: Seattle Ridge	AS/ WW Forecaster
05/02/23	Turnagain	Observation: Cornbiscuit	Schauer/ Sturgess Forecaster
05/02/23	Turnagain	Observation: Seward Hwy Turnagain Pass	Joel Curtis
04/30/23	Turnagain	Observation: Magnum	Ayla, Kit Crosby, Barton
04/29/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	John Sykes
04/28/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Taylor Pass/Pastoral	Schauer/ Creighton Forecaster
04/28/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	Andy Moderow

Riding Areas

Updated Thu, June 01st, 2023

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area	Status	Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass	Closed	Closed May 15.
Placer River	Closed	Closed May 15.
Skookum Drainage	Closed	Will close to motorized use on April 1, 2023 per the National Forest Plan.
Turnagain Pass	Closed	Will close on June 1.
Twentymile	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Seward District
Carter Lake	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Lost Lake Trail	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Primrose Trail	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Resurrection Pass Trail	Closed	Closed to motorized use for the 2022/23 winter season per Forest Plan. Open next season.
Snug Harbor	Closed	Extended opening until May 15.
South Fork Snow River Corridor	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Summit Lake	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.