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ARCHIVED FORECAST - All forecasts expire after 24 hours from the posting date/time.
Issued
Thu, January 29th, 2015 - 7:00AM
Expires
Fri, January 30th, 2015 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Graham Predeger
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

The avalanche danger is LOW today at all aspects and elevations as weak, incoming weather isn’t expected to significantly add to current concerns.   Pockets of MODERATE danger may exist particularly on upper elevation, west aspects where an older wind slab (3-6 €) could be tickled out.

If precipitation or winds enter the picture in amounts greater than forecasted, small and shallow (5-10 €) wind slabs late in the day could be a concern where active loading is taking place.

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Thu, January 29th, 2015
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Low (1)
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Low (1)
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
No Rating (0)
Avalanche risk
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Avalanche risk
Low (1)
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Avalanche risk
Low (1)
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Avalanche risk
No Rating (0)
Danger Scale:
No Rating (0)
Low (1)
Moderate (2)
Considerable (3)
High (4)
Extreme (5)
Avalanche Problem 1
  • Wind Slabs
    Wind Slabs
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
More info at Avalanche.org

We’ve received great info from a Level 3 avalanche class that has been conducting fieldwork in both Turnagain pass and Summit Lake area over the last several days.  Students yesterday found a generally strong snowpack with shallow, stubborn wind slabs on Seattle ridge (Sunny side) that would not propagate under a skier’s weight.  Across the road where moderate westerly winds have not been so destructive the surface consisted of 2-4” of near surface facets capped by growing surface hoar yesterday.  Below the surface data and a lack of avalanche activity continues to validate the high strength, low propagation potential in the Turnagain pass area.

In terms of moving through the mountains today, any pockets of instabilities observed should be relegated to the upper 3-6” of the snowpack and will likely be in the form of older, shallow wind slabs on leeward slopes.  Look for these pockets of denser snow and be mindful of your terrain choices, weighing the consequences of popping off a shallow wind slab.  This will be particularly important in steep, (greater than 40 degrees) upper elevations where you may be exposed to terrain traps below.  If we receive more than 4” of snow today and winds kick up enough to actively transport snow, expect shallow wind slabs (5-10”) to be more reactive to human triggers.  

With a few inches of snow in the forecast, any new wind slabs could also prove problematic to ice climbers exposed to funneled terrain in areas such as Portage Valley.

Avalanche Problem 2
  • Normal Caution
    Normal Caution
Normal Caution
Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.
More info at Avalanche.org

Glide avalanches are still littered throughout the forecast area and with a bit of a warm-up today we’ll be keeping an eye on any glide crack movement or release.  Your best bet remains to limit your time spent underneath glide cracks, as they remain an unpredictable beast.

Glide cracks and glide avalanches (already released) litter the South and West aspects of Eddies.  

  photo: Jaime Andersen

 

Low snow coverage:

Below 2000’ low snow coverage is deceiving with only a few inches of new snow covering rocks, ice and vegetation. Take your time getting in and out of the alpine today.

Weather
Thu, January 29th, 2015

Valley fog persisted throughout the day yesterday with mostly sunny skies above about 500′.   Temperatures warmed slightly throughout the day to the low-20’s at ridgetop locations.   Winds were light and variable, generally in the single digits through the daylight hours.

Today temperatures are expected to continue to climb to the mid-20’s at ridgetops with easterly winds in the 4-14mph range.   A weak band of increased clouds and precipitation is trying to push into our region today and it’s likely we’ll see 1-3 € of snow in the eastern Turnagain arm region by nightfall.

By Friday afternoon skies are expected to clear with high pressure, sunshine and dry offshore flow dominating our weather through the weekend.    

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Snow (in) Water (in) Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′) 23   0   0   31  
Summit Lake (1400′)  15 0   0    6
Alyeska Mid (1700′)  18  0  0  22

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Wind Dir Wind Avg (mph) Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′)  19  NE  7 17  
Seattle Ridge (2400′)  20  variable 4   13  
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Riding Areas
Updated Tue, January 12th, 2021

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area Status Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass
Open
No parking in turnaround at end of the road near the outhouse.
Placer River
Open
Early season conditions exist, including thin ice on rivers, swamps and lakes. Please do not ride along Railroad tracks. Cross tracks at 90 degree angle and clear the right of way.
Skookum Drainage
Open
Early season conditions exist, including thin ice on rivers, swamps and lakes. Please do not ride along Railroad tracks. Cross tracks at 90 degree angle and clear the right of way.
Turnagain Pass
Open
Twentymile
Closed
Seward District
Carter Lake
Open
Lost Lake Trail
Open
Primrose Trail
Open
Resurrection Pass Trail
Closed
Closed for the 2020/21 winter season.
Snug Harbor
Open
South Fork Snow River Corridor
Open
Summit Lake
Open

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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.