Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

In the last 24hours a low-pressure system has brought us very warm temperatures (40’sF) at sea level and rain to 3000’. In Turnagain Pass .5” of water was recorded and double that amount in Girdwood.

No avalanche activity was reported or observed yesterday, but today small wet loose avalanches are the primary concern in areas where low-density snow is poorly bonded. Rain saturating the snowpack can cause this type of snow to weaken and fail, more easily than in denser snow.

It is important to understand that our current snowpack is comprised of large areas of dense supportable snow in the Alpine, but pockets of weaker snow do exist. Triggering a wet loose avalanche requires a steep slope (>40°) and could be larger on sustained slopes. Today this problem will be more likely at mid elevations where there are greater areas of low-density snow.

Expected this type of avalanche to be slow to initiate, meaning they take a little time to gain momentum. Use caution if you choose to ski/ride in steep terrain today.  This kind of avalanche problem is wet and heavy and can easily grab your ski/board and pull you down.

Today light precipitation (0.1”) is expected throughout the day and rainline may decrease to 1000’. This is not enough precipitation to increase the likelihood of natural avalanches. 

At higher elevations, above 3500’, where snow has accumulated there is potential for wind slabs. Yesterday ridgetop winds were from the East and averaged 30mph. Avoid wind loaded leeward slopes if you venture above 3500’. Small pockets 1-2’ deep could be found on leeward sides of ridges and along terrain features such as gullies.

Luckily today with marginal weather and poor surface conditions this terrain will not be very attractive to ski/ride.  In fact your day might be better spent tuning your skis with a warm colored wax and saving gas money in hopes of improved conditions in the coming days. 

We have been tracking several types of buried weak layers over the last three weeks. Recent loading in the last 24hours in the form of rain combined with warm temperatures could be adding additional stress. A persistent slab is more likely to be triggered on very steep slopes and in places with a generally thinner snowpack like the Summit Lake area. This problem is becoming a bit of an outlier, but we do feel it is worth keeping in the back of your mind if you are thinking about venturing onto sustained steep slopes.