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ARCHIVED FORECAST - All forecasts expire after 24 hours from the posting date/time.
Issued
Wed, January 7th, 2015 - 7:00AM
Expires
Thu, January 8th, 2015 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Heather Thamm
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

Today the avalanche danger is LOW with areas of MODERATE danger in the Alpine above 2500′. Triggering an avalanche 1-3′ deep remains possible in very steep terrain and where the snowpack is shallow. Evaluate the snow and terrain before choosing to ski a steep slope.

At treeline triggering an avalanche is unlikely, therefore the danger is LOW.

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Wed, January 7th, 2015
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Moderate (2)
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Low (1)
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
No Rating (0)
Avalanche risk
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Avalanche risk
Moderate (2)
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Avalanche risk
Low (1)
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Avalanche risk
No Rating (0)
Danger Scale:
No Rating (0)
Low (1)
Moderate (2)
Considerable (3)
High (4)
Extreme (5)
Avalanche Problem 1
  • Persistent Slabs
    Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.
More info at Avalanche.org

A large wind event last week has left the slopes scoured on ridges with hard-pack snow conditions above 2500’. This densely settled snow combined with time has added to the strength of the slab by making it supportable and difficult to trigger a buried weak layer below. In general normal caution is advised with the exception of very steep slopes.

Some uncertainty still exists in terrain steeper than 40° and where the snowpack is thinner. The current structure of the snowpack is a 1-3’ slab sitting on a weak layer, and there remains some potential on specific features for a slab to propagate Avoid shallow areas of the snowpack, especially near rocks and steep convex rollovers.

In places like Girdwood and Summit Lake where the snowpack is thinner– triggering a layer of buried surface hoar or facets could be more likely. In these areas consider keeping your slope angles even lower.

If you choose to ski a steep slope identify features of concern and the consequences below you. Practice safe travel techniques like exposing one person at time, communicating route decisions, and always be aware of groups above and below you.

 


 

Over the last week new surface hoar growth has been widely documented and something to be aware of heading into our next warm storm cycle. A big thanks to everyone submitting observations this winter!

Surface hoar formation this week at 2000' in the Girdwood Valley 

Photo Credit: Kyle Bates

Weather
Wed, January 7th, 2015

Over the last few days skies have been clear and an inversion has brought single digit F temps to valley floors with ridgetops in the mid 20’s F. Overnight Eastern winds have been light with no new precipitation.

Temperatures are expected to increase into the low 30’s F today as a low-pressure system approaches from Southeast Alaska. Winds will be out of the East 10-20mph. We may see a trace of new snow tonight, but it is more likely to be in the form of freezing rain at sea level.

Overnight and into tomorrow warm air will continue to override the cool surface air in Southcentral Alaska increasing the likelihood of freezing rain at lower elevations. Temps could be as high as the mid 30’s F at sea level with lows in the 20’s F at ridgetops. Winds are expected to be moderate from the East.  

It is uncertain how much precipitation this warm air mass could bring, but it looks like lower elevation temperatures will remain warm (mid-high 30’s F) into the weekend.  

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Snow (in) Water (in) Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′)  24 0   0   33  
Summit Lake (1400′)  12 0   0    6
Alyeska Mid (1700′) 22   0   0   25  

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Wind Dir Wind Avg (mph) Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′) 23   E   7   30  
Seattle Ridge (2400′) 23   Var   8   29  
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Riding Areas
Updated Tue, January 12th, 2021

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area Status Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass
Open
No parking in turnaround at end of the road near the outhouse.
Placer River
Open
Early season conditions exist, including thin ice on rivers, swamps and lakes. Please do not ride along Railroad tracks. Cross tracks at 90 degree angle and clear the right of way.
Skookum Drainage
Open
Early season conditions exist, including thin ice on rivers, swamps and lakes. Please do not ride along Railroad tracks. Cross tracks at 90 degree angle and clear the right of way.
Turnagain Pass
Open
Twentymile
Closed
Seward District
Carter Lake
Open
Lost Lake Trail
Open
Primrose Trail
Open
Resurrection Pass Trail
Closed
Closed for the 2020/21 winter season.
Snug Harbor
Open
South Fork Snow River Corridor
Open
Summit Lake
Open

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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.