|Travel Advice||Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.||Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.||Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.||Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.||Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.|
|Likelihood of Avalanches||Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.||Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.||Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.||Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.||Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.|
|Avalanche Size and Distribution||Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.||Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.||Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.||Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.||Very large avalanches in many areas.|
It has now been 5 days since the last precipitation fell. During this past week temperatures have cooled and allowed a once rain soaked surface to refreeze between 1,500′-2,500’. As you might guess the snow surface in this elevation band is firm to say the least. “Boilerplate” and “coral reef” are terms that come to mind when thinking about this rain crust. Once above this elevation band, you will find enjoyable and mostly stable snow. Significant slope tests in the form of cornices were witnessed on Thursday with minimal avalanche activity. A lack of buried persistent weak layers in the snowpack in the higher elevations has allowed instability to be confined to during and immediately after this most recent (now not so recent) storm.
New snow amounts today will be in the 3-5” range and are not enough to create slabs big enough to be of concern. You may find exceptions to this on steep wind loaded slopes in the higher elevations. Paying attention to areas that are receiving enough snow and wind to build slabs over 6” will be important today. Keep in mind that these areas will be few and far between. Volume of any potential slabs today should be very low. Any new snow falling today will be touching down on a layer of surface hoar in many areas and consequentially will be sensitive to human triggers.
Other hazards in the mountains today will be traveling in the mid elevations on firm surfaces (hint: sharpen your edges), exposed rocks, stumps, and open water.
We are tracking several areas in the forecast zone that have glide avalanches. Tincan trees, Eddies, and the East face of Pyramid all have glide avalanches of varying size. No new movement was observed yesterday. As always steer clear of any open cracks you see on the snow surface. These avalanches are moving in super slow motion but could change speed without the normal warning signs that we typically associate with avalanche release.
Over the past 24 hours no new snow has fallen in the forecast area. Winds have been light out of the East. Temperatures have averaged in the mid 20s F at ridge tops.
Today expect light snow to begin by midday. Accumulations look to be light, in the 3-5 € range. Winds will be out of the Southeast at 15 to 25 mph. Temperatures will be just below freezing (32F) at 1,000′.
The extended outlook is calling for continued snow showers overnight and through the rest of the weekend. The most intense precipitation should arrive tonight with another dose coming Sunday night. Temperatures over the next few days look to fluctuate and warm enough for rain/snow line to climb into the 1,000′-2,000′ range.
|Temp Avg (F)||Snow (in)||Water (in)||Snow Depth (in)|
|Center Ridge (1880′)||26||0||0||18|
|Summit Lake (1400′)||17||0||0||4|
|Alyeska Mid (1700′)||27||0||0||12.4|
|Temp Avg (F)||Wind Dir||Wind Avg (mph)||Wind Gust (mph)|
|Seattle Ridge (2400′)||25||ENE||8||25|
|11/27/23||Turnagain||Avalanche: Tincan Ridge||Schauer/ Stiassny Forecaster|
|11/26/23||Turnagain||Observation: Road report: Slide with dirt on Repeat offender||Anonymous|
|11/26/23||Turnagain||Observation: Pete’s North||Ben Sullender|
|11/25/23||Turnagain||Observation: Tincan trees||John Sykes Forecaster|
|11/21/23||Observation: Spokane Creek||John Sykes Forecaster|
|11/19/23||Turnagain||Observation: Magnum – PMS Bowl||Schauer/ Cullen/ Jonas Forecaster|
|11/19/23||Other Regions||Observation: Sunnyside/Penguin||Jose Ramos-Leon|
|11/19/23||Turnagain||Observation: Eddies||Andy Moderow|