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ARCHIVED FORECAST - All forecasts expire after 24 hours from the posting date/time.
Issued
Sat, December 13th, 2014 - 7:00AM
Expires
Sun, December 14th, 2014 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
John Fitzgerald
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

The avalanche danger is LOW in the treeline and alpine elevations.   New snow arriving today will not be quite enough (3-5 €) to bump up the danger except for in isolated pockets on steep upper elevation leeward slopes.   On these terrain features the avalanche danger will be MODERATE; expect small pockets of slab up to 6 € deep to be very sensitive to human triggers and low in volume.

Below treeline, between sea level and 1,500′, there is little to no snow on the ground and no danger rating.

Firm snow surfaces between 1,500′-2,500′ require careful travel today.   Early season hazards such as stumps, rocks and open water will begin to be covered with a thin layer of snow.   Pay attention to these obstacles in these areas in order to avoid injury.

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Sat, December 13th, 2014
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Low (1)
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Low (1)
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
No Rating (0)
Avalanche risk
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Avalanche risk
Low (1)
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Avalanche risk
Low (1)
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Avalanche risk
No Rating (0)
Danger Scale:
No Rating (0)
Low (1)
Moderate (2)
Considerable (3)
High (4)
Extreme (5)
Avalanche Problem 1
  • Normal Caution
    Normal Caution
Normal Caution
Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.
More info at Avalanche.org

It has now been 5 days since the last precipitation fell.  During this past week temperatures have cooled and allowed a once rain soaked surface to refreeze between 1,500′-2,500’.  As you might guess the snow surface in this elevation band is firm to say the least.  “Boilerplate” and “coral reef” are terms that come to mind when thinking about this rain crust.  Once above this elevation band, you will find enjoyable and mostly stable snow.  Significant slope tests in the form of cornices were witnessed on Thursday with minimal avalanche activity.  A lack of buried persistent weak layers in the snowpack in the higher elevations has allowed instability to be confined to during and immediately after this most recent (now not so recent) storm.

New snow amounts today will be in the 3-5” range and are not enough to create slabs big enough to be of concern.  You may find exceptions to this on steep wind loaded slopes in the higher elevations.  Paying attention to areas that are receiving enough snow and wind to build slabs over 6” will be important today.  Keep in mind that these areas will be few and far between.  Volume of any potential slabs today should be very low.  Any new snow falling today will be touching down on a layer of surface hoar in many areas and consequentially will be sensitive to human triggers.

Other hazards in the mountains today will be traveling in the mid elevations on firm surfaces (hint: sharpen your edges), exposed rocks, stumps, and open water.

Additional Concern
  • Glide Avalanches
    Glide Avalanches
Glide Avalanches
Glide Avalanches are the release of the entire snow cover as a result of gliding over the ground. Glide avalanches can be composed of wet, moist, or almost entirely dry snow. They typically occur in very specific paths, where the slope is steep enough and the ground surface is relatively smooth. They are often proceeded by full depth cracks (glide cracks), though the time between the appearance of a crack and an avalanche can vary between seconds and months. Glide avalanches are unlikely to be triggered by a person, are nearly impossible to forecast, and thus pose a hazard that is extremely difficult to manage.
More info at Avalanche.org

We are tracking several areas in the forecast zone that have glide avalanches.  Tincan trees, Eddies, and the East face of Pyramid all have glide avalanches of varying size.  No new movement was observed yesterday.  As always steer clear of any open cracks you see on the snow surface.  These avalanches are moving in super slow motion but could change speed without the normal warning signs that we typically associate with avalanche release.

Weather
Sat, December 13th, 2014

Over the past 24 hours no new snow has fallen in the forecast area.   Winds have been light out of the East.   Temperatures have averaged in the mid 20s F at ridge tops.

Today expect light snow to begin by midday.   Accumulations look to be light, in the 3-5 € range.   Winds will be out of the Southeast at 15 to 25 mph.   Temperatures will be just below freezing (32F) at 1,000′.

The extended outlook is calling for continued snow showers overnight and through the rest of the weekend.   The most intense precipitation should arrive tonight with another dose coming Sunday night.   Temperatures over the next few days look to fluctuate and warm enough for rain/snow line to climb into the 1,000′-2,000′ range.

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Snow (in) Water (in) Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′) 26  0  0  18
Summit Lake (1400′) 17  0  0  4
Alyeska Mid (1700′) 27  0  0  12.4

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Wind Dir Wind Avg (mph) Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′) 22  E  10  21
Seattle Ridge (2400′) 25  ENE  8  25
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Riding Areas
Updated Tue, January 12th, 2021

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area Status Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass
Open
No parking in turnaround at end of the road near the outhouse.
Placer River
Open
Early season conditions exist, including thin ice on rivers, swamps and lakes. Please do not ride along Railroad tracks. Cross tracks at 90 degree angle and clear the right of way.
Skookum Drainage
Open
Early season conditions exist, including thin ice on rivers, swamps and lakes. Please do not ride along Railroad tracks. Cross tracks at 90 degree angle and clear the right of way.
Turnagain Pass
Open
Twentymile
Closed
Seward District
Carter Lake
Open
Lost Lake Trail
Open
Primrose Trail
Open
Resurrection Pass Trail
Closed
Closed for the 2020/21 winter season.
Snug Harbor
Open
South Fork Snow River Corridor
Open
Summit Lake
Open

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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.