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ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Issued
Sun, November 30th, 2014 - 7:00AM
Expires
Mon, December 1st, 2014 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Wendy Wagner
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

The avalanche danger remains generally LOW in the Alpine and Treeline elevations. Pockets of MODERATE danger are possible at the upper elevation ridgelines due to an increase in Northwesterly winds overnight which may have formed wind slabs 4-8″ thick. Watch for these on predominantly East and South aspects (For example: the East face of Seattle Ridge).

Below treeline there is only a dusting of 2-3″ of snow covering the ground and No Rating exists. Early season hazards remain, such as rocks, stumps and glide cracks (these will be more obscured today by the new snow from yesterday).

The next advisory will be Tuesday, December 2nd at 7am.

Avalanche Outlook for tomorrow, Monday December 1st: Increasing avalanche danger possible by late Monday.
Early Monday morning another winter storm will start streaming into Southcentral Alaska. There is 1-3″ of snow expected Monday with light to moderate Easterly winds which will keep the danger generally LOW for the daylight hours. Avalanche danger is expected to increase Monday night into Tuesday with continued snowfall and wind.

Special Announcements

Our first, in a series of four,  Frireside Chats begins Thursday December 4th! These will be held in both Girdwood and Anchorage. Thursday night’s Chat will be at 6:30pm at the Glacier Ranger Station in Girdwood. The topic will be –  Intro to Avalanches: Terrain and route finding,  presented by CNFAIC forecaster John Fitzgerald. Mark your calendar!

Sun, November 30th, 2014
Alpine
Above 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
0 - No Rating
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Avalanche Problem 1
  • Normal Caution
    Normal Caution
Normal Caution
Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.
More info at Avalanche.org

It was a welcome sight for many yesterday to see snow falling across most of Southcentral Alaska! Turnagain Pass picked up 3-4″ of low density snow with very little wind and no avalanche activity was seen or reported. Today, we should be greeted with mostly clear skies and chilly temperatures, in the teens. The wind, however, is a bit of a wild card.

WIND SLABS:
Overnight the ridgetop Northwesterly winds bumped up to averages in the teens with gusts to 25-33mph. This doesn’t sound like a whole lot of wind, but with 6-10″ of light snow on the surface, it could have easily blown this snow into drifts and slabs. If you are getting out today into the upper elevations watch for areas with stiff wind deposited snow. Is the snow cracking around you? Does it feel stiff and hollow? Quick hand pits to check for harder snow over softer snow in the top foot of the snowpack are also good ways to look for wind slabs.

SLUFFS:
Sluffing in the top 3-6″ of loose snow is possible on steep, >40 degree, slopes.

EARLY SEASON CONCERNS:
Keep in mind that hazards due to low snow cover (rocks, alders, etc.) remain a concern and they could be harder to see with the new snow.

Photo below: One of countless glide cracks on the slopes of the popular Tincan Trees. These are opening up a little more each day.

Weather
Sun, November 30th, 2014

A quick moving disturbance passed by yesterday blanketing the mountains with 3-4″ of low density snow. The snow came in with ridgetop winds from the Northwest 5-10mph. Overnight, skies have cleared and temperatures have dropped to the teens F. The Northwesterly winds increased early this morning to 10-15mph with gusts to 33mph yet have died back down.

Today is short break between storms. We could see another bump in wind from the Northwest into the 15mph zone. Skies should remain mostly clear and temperatures in the teens.

Monday we will see the onset of a more potent storm that looks to hit most of Southcentral in phases through the middle part of the week. A result of all the snow dances and sacrifices to Ullr…? We can expect cloud cover to increase and 1-3″ of snow by Monday evening with winds shifting to the South and East increasing to the 20mph range. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be the brunt of this storm. Models are suggesting by Wednesday evening Turnagain Pass could see 8-12+” of snow. Stay tuned!

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Snow (in) Water (in) Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′) 24   3   0.2   19  
Summit Lake (1400′) 21   3   0.2   3  
Alyeska Mid (1700′) 24   2   0.17   8  

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Wind Dir Wind Avg (mph) Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′)  19  NW  6 25  
Seattle Ridge (2400′)   20    N  9   33  
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.