Wed, November 05, 2014 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Wed, November 5th, 2014

Alpine

Above 2,500'

0 - No Rating

Treeline

1,000'-2,500'

0 - No Rating

Below Treeline

Below 1,000'

0 - No Rating

1 - Low

2 - Moderate

3 - Considerable

4 - High

5 - Extreme


Travel Advice	Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.	Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.	Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.	Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.	Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches	Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.	Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.	Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.	Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.	Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution	Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.	Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.	Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.	Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.	Very large avalanches in many areas.

Avalanche Problem 1

Storm Slabs

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

More info at Avalanche.org

As we head into a stormy next several days and weekend, below are some things to watch for:

New snow avalanches! There is plenty of snow out there to be wary of and ruin your day. In the event we receive new snow and wind watch for natural avalanches as well as human triggered slides. These can come in the form of:

Wind Slabs where the wind has loaded leeward aspects
Storm Slabs including both soft and hard slabs
Loose Snow Avalanches (sluffs).

Watch for poor bonding between any new snow and the old weak snow from October and early November.

Know where you are:

Steer clear of being under steep slopes or in terrain traps. Many folks have been getting out in the Crow Pass area – this is a CLASSIC terrain trap and the trail often traverses a large avalanche path. Sadly, in late November of 1997, this was the site of an avalanche fatality. It’s avalanche season – heads up, don’t let it catch you off guard !!

Avalanche Problem 2

Glide Avalanches

Glide Avalanches

Glide Avalanches are the release of the entire snow cover as a result of gliding over the ground. Glide avalanches can be composed of wet, moist, or almost entirely dry snow. They typically occur in very specific paths, where the slope is steep enough and the ground surface is relatively smooth. They are often proceeded by full depth cracks (glide cracks), though the time between the appearance of a crack and an avalanche can vary between seconds and months. Glide avalanches are unlikely to be triggered by a person, are nearly impossible to forecast, and thus pose a hazard that is extremely difficult to manage.

More info at Avalanche.org

Glide avalanches?! There may only be 1-2′ of snow on the ground but that is enough for the NW nose of Eddies to start producing glide cracks. These are mostly small, yet some look to have released. Always steer clear of, and out from under, glide cracks. Also, keep a close eye on any new snow that may hide cracks as our snowpack slowly piles up.

Glide cracks on Eddies (A bit hard to see in the photo).

Weather

Wed, November 5th, 2014

Today, Wednesday, a disturbance in the Northern Gulf has the potential to bring 2-3+” of snow to above treeline elevations and rain/snow below. Winds look to be in the 20-30mph range from the East.

Friday through the weekend, an upper level low in the Gulf along with the remnants of super typhoon Nuri will impact Eastern Turnagain Arm with hopefully another shot of snow to start our season. Stay tuned!

Weather Links?

General weather: HERE
Developmental Eastern Turnagain Arm Forecast: HERE (Bookmark this page if you have not done so already)
What it looks like up at Turnagain Pass: AKDOT’s webcams!
Treeline snow depth on Center Ridge: SNOTEL site.

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
12/02/23	Turnagain	Observation: Seattle Ridge	Schauer / Keeler Forecaster
12/02/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan South Side	Anonymous
12/02/23	Turnagain	Observation: Eddies up track	Luc Mehl
12/01/23		Avalanche: Sunburst	John Sykes Forecaster
12/01/23	Turnagain	Observation: Eddie’s trees	Anonymous
12/01/23	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain – God’s Country	Graham Predeger Forecaster
11/30/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan Trees	Kakiko Ramos-Leon
11/27/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan Ridge	Schauer/ Stiassny Forecaster
11/26/23	Turnagain	Observation: Road report: Slide with dirt on Repeat offender	Anonymous
11/26/23	Turnagain	Observation: Pete’s North	Ben Sullender

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