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ARCHIVED FORECAST - All forecasts expire after 24 hours from the posting date/time.
Issued
Wed, November 5th, 2014 - 7:00AM
Expires
Thu, November 6th, 2014 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Wendy Wagner
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

We will be posting intermittent updates during the first half of November. Advisories will begin in mid-November or as the snowpack warrants.

There is just enough snow to get out and scratch around on skis/boards or snowshoes (still a ways away from enough snow for motorized use). A handful of folks were out on the Tincan and Sunburst ridges yesterday. Reports on snow cover were: 1-2+ feet of wind distributed low density snow above treeline and 8-12″ of a mix of crusts and low density snow below treeline. Check out these photos sent in to us from a skier on Sunburst and a few photos from the road HERE.

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Wed, November 5th, 2014
Alpine
Above 2,500'
No Rating (0)
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
No Rating (0)
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
No Rating (0)
Avalanche risk
Alpine
Above 2,500'		 Avalanche risk
No Rating (0)
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'		 Avalanche risk
No Rating (0)
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'		 Avalanche risk
No Rating (0)
Danger Scale:
No Rating (0)
Low (1)
Moderate (2)
Considerable (3)
High (4)
Extreme (5)
Avalanche Problem 1
  • Storm Slabs
    Storm Slabs
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
More info at Avalanche.org

As we head into a stormy next several days and weekend, below are some things to watch for:

  • New snow avalanches! There is plenty of snow out there to be wary of and ruin your day. In the event we receive new snow and wind watch for natural avalanches as well as human triggered slides. These can come in the form of:
  • Watch for poor bonding between any new snow and the old weak snow from October and early November.

 

Know where you are:

Steer clear of being under steep slopes or in terrain traps. Many folks have been getting out in the Crow Pass area – this is a CLASSIC terrain trap and the trail often traverses a large avalanche path. Sadly, in late November of 1997, this was the site of an avalanche fatality.  It’s avalanche season – heads up, don’t let it catch you off guard !!

  

Avalanche Problem 2
  • Glide Avalanches
    Glide Avalanches
Glide Avalanches
Glide Avalanches are the release of the entire snow cover as a result of gliding over the ground. Glide avalanches can be composed of wet, moist, or almost entirely dry snow. They typically occur in very specific paths, where the slope is steep enough and the ground surface is relatively smooth. They are often proceeded by full depth cracks (glide cracks), though the time between the appearance of a crack and an avalanche can vary between seconds and months. Glide avalanches are unlikely to be triggered by a person, are nearly impossible to forecast, and thus pose a hazard that is extremely difficult to manage.
More info at Avalanche.org

Glide avalanches?!  There may only be 1-2′ of snow on the ground but that is enough for the NW nose of Eddies to start producing glide cracks. These are mostly small, yet some look to have released. Always steer clear of, and out from under, glide cracks. Also, keep a close eye on any new snow that may hide cracks as our snowpack slowly piles up.

Glide cracks on Eddies (A bit hard to see in the photo).

Weather
Wed, November 5th, 2014

Today, Wednesday, a disturbance in the Northern Gulf has the potential to bring 2-3+” of snow to above treeline elevations and rain/snow below. Winds look to be in the 20-30mph range from the East.  

Friday through the weekend, an upper level low in the Gulf along with the remnants of super typhoon Nuri will impact Eastern Turnagain Arm with hopefully another shot of snow to start our season. Stay tuned!

Weather Links?

General weather:  HERE  
Developmental Eastern Turnagain Arm Forecast:  HERE  (Bookmark this page if you have not done so already)
What it looks like up at Turnagain Pass:  AKDOT’s webcams!
Treeline snow depth on Center Ridge:    SNOTEL site.

 

Observations
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Riding Areas
Updated Thu, April 01st, 2021

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area Status Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass
Open
No parking in turnaround at end of the road near the outhouse.
Placer River
Open
Please do not ride along Railroad tracks. Cross tracks at 90 degree angle and clear the right of way.
Skookum Drainage
Closed
The Skookum Valley is closed to snowmachines. This closure occurs annually on April 1 as per the CNF Forest Plan.
Turnagain Pass
Open
Twentymile
Open
Please do not ride along Railroad tracks. Cross tracks at 90 degree angle and clear the right of way.
Seward District
Carter Lake
Open
Lost Lake Trail
Open
Primrose Trail
Open
Resurrection Pass Trail
Closed
Closed for the 2020/21 winter season.
Snug Harbor
Open
South Fork Snow River Corridor
Open
Summit Lake
Open

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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.

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