Sat, April 26, 2014 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Sat, April 26th, 2014

Alpine

Above 2,500'

2 - Moderate

Treeline

1,000'-2,500'

2 - Moderate

Below Treeline

Below 1,000'

2 - Moderate

0 - No Rating

1 - Low

2 - Moderate

3 - Considerable

4 - High

5 - Extreme


Travel Advice	Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.	Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.	Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.	Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.	Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches	Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.	Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.	Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.	Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.	Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution	Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.	Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.	Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.	Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.	Very large avalanches in many areas.

Avalanche Problem 1

Wind Slabs

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

More info at Avalanche.org

Winds out of the East coupled with 8-10” of new snow in the higher elevations have created slabs that will be easy to trigger this morning. These slabs will range in depth from 10-14”. With more snow and wind in the forecast, expect these slabs to increase in depth and sensitivity. These slabs will be most sensitive as they are forming.

With winds blowing predominantly out of the East, it is safe to assume that West aspects will be wind loaded today. However, as wind interacts with terrain, it often changes direction. Because of this it is important to learn how to recognize wind loaded terrain features. Look for smooth, rounded and pillowy surfaces. Shooting cracks are commonly found on wind loaded features and are an obvious sign of unstable snow.

Avoiding wind loaded areas will be your best bet for managing this avalanche concern today.

Avalanche Problem 2

Wet Loose

Wet Loose

Wet Loose avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

More info at Avalanche.org

Rain and above freezing temperatures have and will continue to create weak surface snow. In terrain over 40 degrees in the lower elevations be on the lookout for human triggered wet loose avalanches to move slowly. There is potential for these to gain enough mass to knock a person over and increase chances for injury. If you are sinking more than a few inches below the surface, it is time to back off of steep terrain.

Weather

Sat, April 26th, 2014

In the past 24 hours 8 € snow containing .8 € of water have fallen at the Center Ridge SNOTEL site. Rain/snow line has fluctuated between 500′-1,800′. Winds have been blowing steadily out of the East, with Sunburst averaging 25 mph (max gust 49 mph). Temperatures at ridge tops have been in the mid 20s F (Sunburst 24 hr avg=23.2 F)

Today expect more precipitation, with the bulk of it arriving later in the day. As much as 5 € of additional snow can be expected by sunset. Winds will continue to be in the moderate range, 25-35 mph out of the East. Rain/snow line should hover around 1,500-1,800′. Temperatures at 1,000′ will reach into the low 40s F.

Unsettled weather will persist through the weekend. Moving into the early part of next week drier conditions should take over as the Low currently stalled over the area makes an exit.

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
12/02/23	Turnagain	Observation: Seattle Ridge	Schauer / Keeler Forecaster
12/02/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan South Side	Anonymous
12/02/23	Turnagain	Observation: Eddies up track	Luc Mehl
12/01/23		Avalanche: Sunburst	John Sykes Forecaster
12/01/23	Turnagain	Observation: Eddie’s trees	Anonymous
12/01/23	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain – God’s Country	Graham Predeger Forecaster
11/30/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan Trees	Kakiko Ramos-Leon
11/27/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan Ridge	Schauer/ Stiassny Forecaster
11/26/23	Turnagain	Observation: Road report: Slide with dirt on Repeat offender	Anonymous
11/26/23	Turnagain	Observation: Pete’s North	Ben Sullender

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