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ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Issued
Thu, April 10th, 2014 - 7:00AM
Expires
Fri, April 11th, 2014 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Kevin Wright
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

Another beautiful sunny day is expected.  Cold, clear, and calm.  Avalanche potential will be  LOW,  with only minor sluffing noted in the last couple days.  

Temperatures remained cold enough yesterday that our new surface should still be fairly soft and dry.  The exception to that may be south faces that got a direct hit by sun, and a sun crust may be found.  

Thu, April 10th, 2014
Alpine
Above 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Avalanche Problem 1
  • Dry Loose
    Dry Loose
Dry Loose
Dry Loose avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.
More info at Avalanche.org

The only evidence of recent moving snow that we know of is loose snow sluffing.  This activity appears to be all low volume and minor in size.  With a couple days since the storm, surface snow will now be more settled and consolidated and more difficult to cause additional sluffing.  

The backcountry really does look nice out there.  6 inches of new snow fell on the old tired surface early this week.  This refresh isn’t enough to keep you from feeling the old snow underneath, but it is enough to improve conditions.  Combined with sunny skies, the backcountry is a fairly safe and pleasant playground today.  

Natural small sluff avalanche on the west face of Lips.

Weather
Thu, April 10th, 2014

The last storm was on Tuesday when 6-8 inches fell at Turnagain Pass and Girdwood.  This has now settled to 4-6 inches.  

Temperatures remained cold yesterday, below freezing in the mountains despite the sunny skies.  Overnight temperatures dipped to teens and single digits.  Clouds are rare in our current high pressure pattern.

We can expect sunny skies for today and tomorrow, and a change to stormy weather on Saturday night.  

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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.