|Travel Advice||Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.||Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.||Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.||Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.||Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.|
|Likelihood of Avalanches||Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.||Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.||Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.||Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.||Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.|
|Avalanche Size and Distribution||Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.||Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.||Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.||Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.||Very large avalanches in many areas.|
It looks like another day of normal caution, with a couple extra thoughts regarding accumulating snow. Any avalanche activity today will be shallow, no deeper than the surface snow that we’ve been on for the last 3 weeks.
If snowfall today is 4 inches or less as predicted, the worst avalanche problems should be very small and manageable – not really a danger, but something to watch. If more than 6 inches falls today, wind slabs could reach 1 foot deep and will be poorly bonded to the surface underneath – these could be a game changer in steep terrain and not something you want to mess with.
As we all hope for another good winter storm, we can’t forget about the old surface conditions that make up the new interface of concern in the snowpack. South faces have been baking in the sun for the last 3 weeks, and freezing up hard at night. North faces have been faceting out into unconsolidated sugar snow. Surface hoar is present nearly everywhere we’ve looked the last few days. All of these components will be difficult for new snow to bond to, making for potentially unstable conditions when the new snow becomes deep enough.
The old cornice problem is still present. As always, give the mature overhanging cornices a wide berth when traveling on ridge tops. With new snow and wind, cornices will be growing again for the next few days.
Temperatures moderated just a bit yesterday, with slightly higher lows and lower highs. Winds have increased. A tiny bit of snow started falling yesterday, but no more than an inch.
For today the snow amount is predicted to be 1-4 inches, with a snow/rain line at 1300 feet. Look for a southeast wind of 16-32mph.
The outlook through Sunday looks like more of the same. The precipitation intensity is not expected to be very significant. With a few days of snow showers we might see enough accumulation to change surface conditions for the better and produce some small avalanche activity.
|12/01/23||Avalanche: Sunburst||John Sykes Forecaster|
|12/01/23||Turnagain||Observation: Eddie’s trees||Anonymous|
|12/01/23||Turnagain||Observation: Turnagain – God’s Country||Graham Predeger Forecaster|
|11/30/23||Turnagain||Avalanche: Tincan Trees||Kakiko Ramos-Leon|
|11/27/23||Turnagain||Avalanche: Tincan Ridge||Schauer/ Stiassny Forecaster|
|11/26/23||Turnagain||Observation: Road report: Slide with dirt on Repeat offender||Anonymous|
|11/26/23||Turnagain||Observation: Pete’s North||Ben Sullender|
|11/25/23||Turnagain||Observation: Tincan trees||John Sykes Forecaster|
|11/21/23||Observation: Spokane Creek||John Sykes Forecaster|