Sat, February 22, 2014 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Sat, February 22nd, 2014

Alpine

Above 2,500'

2 - Moderate

Treeline

1,000'-2,500'

2 - Moderate

Below Treeline

Below 1,000'

2 - Moderate

0 - No Rating

1 - Low

2 - Moderate

3 - Considerable

4 - High

5 - Extreme


Travel Advice	Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.	Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.	Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.	Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.	Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches	Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.	Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.	Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.	Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.	Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution	Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.	Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.	Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.	Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.	Very large avalanches in many areas.

Avalanche Problem 1

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

More info at Avalanche.org

The most common snowpack problem continues to be a weak layer of facets on top of the hard melt/freeze crust from January. We can’t find the facets everywhere, but they are common at and above treeline. All the February snow (51 inches of storm accumulation at Turnagain Pass) now sits on this weak layer. Snow pit tests are showing moderate to hard force required to collapse the facet layer. In many places that failure will propagate across an extended column (this video shows an example from last weekend).

Last weekend we had many avalanches reported on this weak layer. Check the observations page for photos and descriptions of those slides.

People are starting to explore farther back into the mountains. Steeper slopes are getting tested, which has resulted in the two known human triggered avalanches in the last 2 days. Avoiding or minimizing exposure to steep terrain is the safest bet with the current problem. We still have plenty of untracked snow on slopes less than 35 degrees. If you do find yourself in the steeps, careful terrain management by exposing only one person at a time and avoiding terrain traps will be essential.

Weather

Sat, February 22nd, 2014

It hasn’t snowed in several days now, since the 18th. Wind has also stayed minimal since that last snowfall.

Today’s expected weather is mostly cloudy with a chance of snow (less than 1 inch). Wind may pick up, 20-35mph from the Southeast and increase more tonight.

Sunny weather is forecasted for Sunday and Monday. Overall we are staying in a calm weather pattern. Check the weather page for more detailed information.

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
10/27/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	Michael Kerst
10/21/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation	Trevor Clayton
10/19/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run	Andy Moderow
10/18/24	Turnagain	Observation: Taylor Pass	Eli Neuffer
10/15/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan Common	John Sykes Forecaster
10/14/24	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	CNFAC Staff
05/13/24	Turnagain	Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South	H Thamm
05/13/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side	Amy Holman
05/12/24	Turnagain	Observation: Warm up Bowl	Tony Naciuk
05/07/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs	A S

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