Tue, February 18, 2014 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Tue, February 18th, 2014

Alpine
Above 2,500'

High (4)

Treeline
1,000'-2,500'

Considerable (3)

Below Treeline
Below 1,000'

Considerable (3)

Alpine Above 2,500'		High (4)
Treeline 1,000'-2,500'		Considerable (3)
Below Treeline Below 1,000'		Considerable (3)

Danger Scale:

No Rating (0)

Low (1)

Moderate (2)

Considerable (3)

High (4)

Extreme (5)

Avalanche Problem 1

Storm Slabs

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

More info at Avalanche.org

Another round of snow is expected to come in fast and furious today. Winds, combined with high snowfall rates will rapidly load slopes and quickly increase avalanche danger. If the forecast verifies, instability will be on the rise for all the classic storm snow avalanche concerns:

Wind slabs:
Winds out of the East are currently increasing. With ample snow available for transport, naturally occurring wind slab avalanches 1-3′ thick are possible on leeward slopes and rollovers, also watch for cross-loading in gullies. I’d expect much of today’s avalanche activity to be in the form of wind slabs of varying thickness.

Storm Slabs:
Snowfall today will be falling on low density powder from Sunday night. Though today’s snow is expected to be low density as well and not prime conditions for creating storm slabs, the simple “rapid loading” that is expected has the potential to do this – even without the presence of wind. These slabs will be soft and could occur naturally on steep slopes at all elevations.

Loose Snow avalanches:
Loose snow sluffs should be expected. The biggest concern with these is the possibility for initiating either a storm slab or a persistent slab on the descent.

Cornices:
Today will be ideal cornice growth and calving conditions. The main concern with cornices also has to do with the possibility for triggering a larger slab below.

*Note: The AKDOT webcam is working again on Turnagain Pass! Keep tabs on snowfall as well as the road conditions with this link.

Avalanche Problem 2

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

More info at Avalanche.org

Today we will be adding yet another load to our tenuous snowpack and potentially overloading the weak snow that sits just above the thick January crust. This weak layer of faceted snow has been well documented over the past two weeks and sits below all the February storm snow – between 2 and 3 feet deep. These persistent slab avalanches have the ability to propagate over entire slopes and be around 2-3′ deep (deeper with any additional snow).

In the event the storm today does not produce, this avalanche problem will be the primary concern. We have already seen multiple large remotely triggered slides occur in this mid-pack weak layer and today will be no different.

Weather

Tue, February 18th, 2014

Updated storm totals beginning Sunday evening through yesterday mid-day:

Turnagain Pass – 14″ (Eddie’s), 12″ (Tincan) and 10″ on (Sunburst)

Girdwood Valley mid to upper elevations – 8-9″

Summit Lake – 3-5″

During the past 24-hours we have seen a short break between storms. Temperatures have hovered in the mid-teens on the ridgetops and mid-20’s at 1,000′. Ridgetop winds have averaged 10mph with a max gust of 32mph from the East and Southeast. Overnight, clouds have filled back in with the beginning of the next system, which is on our doorstep.

Today and into tonight another round of heavy snow (1+” of water weight) is on tap. As of 6am this morning 4″ has fallen on Turnagain Pass with only ~2″ in Girdwood and a trace at Summit Lake. We should see between 10-18″ by tonight – at least on the Pass. Ridgetop winds are just beginning to increase and are expected to average around 40mph from the East. Temperatures look to remain in the mid to lower teens above treeline and the mid-20’s at 1,000′, which will allow for snowfall to be low density.

Snow showers should taper off tomorrow (Wednesday) and models show a break between storms Thursday before another system moves in Friday with snow possible.

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
05/22/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	Nick D'Alessio
05/12/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan, Sunburst, Magnum, Cornbiscuit	Heather Thamm
05/07/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan – Bear Tracks	CNFAIC Staff
05/05/23	Turnagain	Observation: Seattle Ridge	AS/ WW Forecaster
05/02/23	Turnagain	Observation: Cornbiscuit	Schauer/ Sturgess Forecaster
05/02/23	Turnagain	Observation: Seward Hwy Turnagain Pass	Joel Curtis
04/30/23	Turnagain	Observation: Magnum	Ayla, Kit Crosby, Barton
04/29/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	John Sykes
04/28/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Taylor Pass/Pastoral	Schauer/ Creighton Forecaster
04/28/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	Andy Moderow

Riding Areas

Updated Mon, May 15th, 2023

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area	Status	Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass	Closed	Closed May 15.
Placer River	Closed	Closed May 15.
Skookum Drainage	Closed	Will close to motorized use on April 1, 2023 per the National Forest Plan.
Turnagain Pass	Open	Chugach NF staff will be assessing daily after May 15th. Please keep machines on the snow and avoid brown spots to keep this area open as long as possible.
Twentymile	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Seward District
Carter Lake	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Lost Lake Trail	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Primrose Trail	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Resurrection Pass Trail	Closed	Closed to motorized use for the 2022/23 winter season per Forest Plan. Open next season.
Snug Harbor	Closed	Extended opening until May 15.
South Fork Snow River Corridor	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Summit Lake	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.