Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast
The avalanche hazard is HIGH at all elevations. Large natural avalanches are likely today. Rain & snow along with warm temperatures and high winds will make for very dangerous conditions in the backcountry. Travel in or near avalanche terrain is NOT recommended today.
All of the concerns listed below deserve equal weight in terms of both likelihood and consequences.
There will be intermittent closures today on the Seward Highway for avalanche hazard reduction work between Girdwood and Seward near mileposts 99, 97, 87, 44, 37, 21. Motorists should expect delays of up to 45 minutes between 10:00 AM and 3:00 PM.
Updates will be posted on the 511 system. http://511.alaska.gov/
The already tenuous snowpack is receiving a significant shock to its system. Rain began falling up to 2,000’ overnight. Snow that has fallen since mid December has formed into slabs up to 3 feet in depth. That slab is now losing strength. As that slab loses strength it becomes much more likely for weak layers near the ground to awaken and release large avalanches. Expect entire slopes to avalanche.
Wet slab and wet loose avalanches are possible up to 3,000′ in elevation today.
Heavy wet snow combined with high winds in the upper elevations will create very unstable conditions within the new snow today. Freshly formed slabs up to 2 feet in depth will likely avalanche on their own. High winds will also help to build slabs in areas that don’t normally see much wind (e.g. below treeline and well below typical starting zones). These slabs have the potential to step down to older weak layers near the ground. Expect avalanches to pull out across large areas and run long distances.
Weak layers that make up the bottom of the snowpack proved to be reactive yesterday. Both natural and remotely triggered avalanches were observed. Even if we took today’s weather out of the equation we would still have dangerous avalanche conditions. Given today’s weather, the likelihood of triggering an avalanche in these deeper weak layers is rapidly on the rise. Warm temperatures and rain up to 2,000 feet will help to activate these layers. Dangerous slabs up to 3 feet in depth are likely to take out large areas today.
Red flags abound in the weather category today.
Temperatures (F) are first, with current temps (6am):
Center Ridge SNOTEL @ 1,880′: 35
Seattle Ridge @ 2,400′: 30
Sunburst @ 3,812′: 28
Center Ridge had a high overnight reading of 40 deg F. This is a 10 degree rise in 12 hours.
It is currently raining at Center Ridge with .4 € of water over the past 8 hours, with slightly higher amounts in the Girdwood Valley (.5″ of H2O). This equates to roughly 5 € of new snow at ridge tops. This by itself is a modest amount of snowfall in starting zones. However, let’s take a look at winds.
Sunburst averaging 62 mph out of the East. Gust to 105 mph.
Seattle averaging 48 mph out of the ESE. Gust to 82 mph.
Precipitation, temperature and winds are currently combining to create very unstable conditions.
Today expect as much as 12 € of new snow, with 2 € of snow water equivalent. Freezing level will climb up to ridge top elevation (3,000′). Ridge top winds will be strong all day, in the 65-70 mph range.
Winds and precipitation should taper off on Saturday. The pattern will remain active (continuation of precip) through the weekend and into the early part of next week.
|05/22/23||Turnagain||Avalanche: Tincan||Nick D'Alessio|
|05/12/23||Turnagain||Avalanche: Tincan, Sunburst, Magnum, Cornbiscuit||Heather Thamm|
|05/07/23||Turnagain||Observation: Tincan – Bear Tracks||CNFAIC Staff|
|05/05/23||Turnagain||Observation: Seattle Ridge||AS/ WW Forecaster|
|05/02/23||Turnagain||Observation: Cornbiscuit||Schauer/ Sturgess Forecaster|
|05/02/23||Turnagain||Observation: Seward Hwy Turnagain Pass||Joel Curtis|
|04/30/23||Turnagain||Observation: Magnum||Ayla, Kit Crosby, Barton|
|04/29/23||Turnagain||Observation: Tincan||John Sykes|
|04/28/23||Turnagain||Avalanche: Taylor Pass/Pastoral||Schauer/ Creighton Forecaster|
|04/28/23||Turnagain||Avalanche: Tincan||Andy Moderow|
Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: email@example.com
|Area||Status||Weather & Riding Conditions|
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.