Fri, December 06, 2013 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Fri, December 6th, 2013

Alpine

Above 2,500'

1 - Low

Treeline

1,000'-2,500'

1 - Low

Below Treeline

Below 1,000'

1 - Low

0 - No Rating

1 - Low

2 - Moderate

3 - Considerable

4 - High

5 - Extreme


Travel Advice	Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.	Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.	Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.	Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.	Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches	Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.	Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.	Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.	Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.	Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution	Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.	Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.	Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.	Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.	Very large avalanches in many areas.

Avalanche Problem 1

Normal Caution

Normal Caution

Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.

More info at Avalanche.org

The main concerns today are more associated with mountain travel than with avalanches. A weak, shallow and thin snowpack warrants caution as rocks and stumps can be found everywhere. In the higher elevations snow densities are inconsistent resulting in pockets of stiff snow in an otherwise soft and loose snowpack. A slick crust will form as temps begin to cool slightly in the next day. This will make travel challenging in many areas. If you head into the mountains today pay attention to these real hazards.

GENERAL SNOWPACK DISCUSSION
After roughly a week of clear weather the snowpack has shown signs of weakening (faceting). Beginning on 12/4 warm moist air started saturating the top layer of the snowpack. While this has weakened the snow surface, it has not been wet or warm enough to de stabilize the snowpack. We will be paying close attention to this new snow surface as it forms. It will be important to note if there is still weak snow below it (likely) as well as what falls on top of it with the next storm system.

Weather

Fri, December 6th, 2013

Warm air aloft has been trying to run over an established ridge of high pressure that is sitting to our east and north. This has resulted in freezing rain up to ridge top levels. Mountain temperatures have been hovering around freezing for the past 24 hours with latest readings of 29 F at Sunburst and 32 F on Seattle ridge. Winds at the Seattle ridge station have averaged in the teens and have been lesser at Sunburst.

Today expect cloudy skies and occasional light precipitation, primarily in the form of rain and freezing rain. Temperatures will remain mild and winds will be light out of the South.

High pressure will re establish itself over South Central AK as we head into the weekend. Expect drier conditions, clearing skies and mild temps through the weekend.

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
04/21/24	Turnagain	Observation: Bertha Creek	Anonymous
04/20/24	Turnagain	Avalanche: Spokane Creek	Schauer/ Mailly Forecaster
04/16/24	Turnagain	Observation: Cornbiscuit	Krueger / Matthys Forecaster
04/15/24	Turnagain	Observation: Taylor Pass	John Sykes Forecaster
04/15/24	Turnagain	Observation: Seward Highway – Tern Lake to Portage	Joel Curtis
04/14/24	Turnagain	Observation: Sunburst	T. Olsen-Lund, R. Sullivan I. Adams
04/14/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass Snomo	K. Gallaher
04/13/24	Turnagain	Observation: Spokane Creek	Everet Megli
04/11/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	John Sykes Forecaster
04/10/24	Turnagain	Avalanche: Seattle Ridge	Schauer/ Keeler Forecaster

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