Wed, December 04, 2013 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Wed, December 4th, 2013

Alpine

Above 2,500'

1 - Low

Treeline

1,000'-2,500'

1 - Low

Below Treeline

Below 1,000'

1 - Low

0 - No Rating

1 - Low

2 - Moderate

3 - Considerable

4 - High

5 - Extreme


Travel Advice	Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.	Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.	Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.	Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.	Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches	Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.	Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.	Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.	Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.	Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution	Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.	Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.	Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.	Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.	Very large avalanches in many areas.

Avalanche Problem 1

Normal Caution

Normal Caution

Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.

More info at Avalanche.org

Yesterday was another somewhat un-inspiring day in the backcountry in terms of avalanche activity. To date our snowpack above 2000’ is shallow and made up of very weak snow that lacks any sort of cohesive slab. Without that slab component, we simply are not seeing avalanches in our area. At lower elevations, stout crusts that were so prevalent and annoying a week ago are decomposing, lending to improved surface conditions.

Though the skiing leaves much to be desired, it is worth a jaunt into our backcountry facet-farm simply to get eyes on what will be the foundation of our 2013/14 seasonal snowpack. There are some fun turns to be had in this recycled powder snow, just be mindful of what the ski industry refers to as “early season hazards”.

The faceting process looks to continue in the near future as temperature gradients in our shallow snowpack are well within the limits to promote facet growth.

Average snowpack depths:
Above treeline, 15-30″
Below treeline, 12-15″

Weather

Wed, December 4th, 2013

The temperature inversion remained in place yesterday, though wasn’t quite as extreme as we saw at the beginning of the week. Ridge top temperatures did stay below freezing and continued a slow slide down toward what we would consider more normal December temperatures yesterday. Winds were light and variable as a high deck of clouds moved into our area from the south mid-day.

We can expect increased clouds in our region today though winds will remain light and variable. Temperatures look to be moderating throughout the day, as colder low elevation air will continue to be scoured out and replaced by a slightly warmer air mass.

Models show a slight chance of mixed precipitation tonight and into tomorrow for the Anchorage area, but given the general flow pattern and forecasted amounts its unlikely that the eastern Turnagain arm region will see much more than a few flakes.

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
10/27/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	Michael Kerst
10/21/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation	Trevor Clayton
10/19/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run	Andy Moderow
10/18/24	Turnagain	Observation: Taylor Pass	Eli Neuffer
10/15/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan Common	John Sykes Forecaster
10/14/24	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	CNFAC Staff
05/13/24	Turnagain	Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South	H Thamm
05/13/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side	Amy Holman
05/12/24	Turnagain	Observation: Warm up Bowl	Tony Naciuk
05/07/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs	A S

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