Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast
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A skier triggered avalanche on Tincan yesterday confirms that the storm snow overloaded the weak layer underneath. Today we can expect more of the same, but calmer weather and more than 24 hours since the peak of the storm will drop the danger rating to MODERATE. Human triggered avalanches are possible today, and steeper windloaded features above treeline should be approached cautiously.
The nature of yesterday’s reported avalanche is driving a lot of this advisory today. We still have a shallow snowpack, so we can’t expect truly large avalanches to happen. Nonetheless, the new snow from Thursday and Friday (6 inches to 2 feet) is lying on a tenuous layer of weak faceted snow. The avalanche reportedly triggered sympathetic avalanches nearby. This is a big red flag for poor bonding and unstable snow. The report also goes on to say that testing showed “failure on isolation”, another big red flag.
We can expect the backcountry to be more stable than yesterday, but I have no doubt that trouble can be found if you go jump on a bunch of steep slopes. Terrain choices will drive safe decisions this weekend – bigger and steeper slopes should be avoided.
Other places, such as Max’s mountain in Girdwood were showing evidence of natural loose snow avalanches yesterday that stripped the snow to the ground. See picture below.
The bulk of the snowfall on Thursday and Friday came with strong Easterly wind. Deeper wind deposited snow will be found on West aspects and cross loaded North and South features.
Another few inches of snow fell yesterday morning, with the freezing rain down at sea level. Wind has dropped back to more reasonable levels. The temperature has cooled off from the mid 30s yesterday to the teens and 20s this morning.
Snow showers are still in the forecast today, but only a few inches at most. The weather does not appear to be contributing to any increase in the avalanche potential today.
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
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01/31/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Johnson Pass area | Megan Guinn / W Wagner Forecaster |
01/29/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Backdoor | AAS-Level 1 1/27-1/30 |
01/28/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Sunburst | Brooke Edwards |
01/28/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Seattle Ridge | W Wagner |
01/28/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | Tony Naciuk |
01/27/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Sunburst | John Sykes |
01/27/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Lynx Creek | Megan Guinn / W Wagner |
01/25/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | John Sykes Forecaster |
01/22/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | Schauer/ Guinn |
01/21/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Seattle Ridge | Elias Holt |
Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us
Area | Status | Weather & Riding Conditions |
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Glacier District |
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.