We do not have great conditions for wind slab development with little snow available for transport (much of the surface is in the form of crusts) and only up to an inch of new snow in the forecast. However, there are two things to keep in mind which will keep wind slab on the radar. First, winds have been predominantly out of the northwest for the past week but shifted around to an easterly direction yesterday and picked up overnight. And second, many northerly aspects still harbor loose faceted snow that could be blown into fresh drifts. So the question is, will the wind be strong enough and in the right direction to form slabs? It’s possible. For today, watch for signs of visible wind loading and cracking in the snow under you from a drift that may have formed earlier. Any fresh slabs should be shallow (~6″ at best) yet quite sensitive as they’ll likely be sitting on a slick surface.
Fast running sluffs on steep northerly aspects have been the only avalanche activity we have seen or heard of for the past several days. This will be the case again today so sluff management continues in areas with loose faceted snow. Many slopes however sport varying degrees of sun crust and wind crust along with many many tracks.
With cloudy skies and cool temperatures in store today the threat of wet loose snow avalanches will be low.
Yesterday marked the 11th day in a row with sunny skies, cold nights and no precipitation. We may break that streak today – but if we do it’s likely only in the cloud cover category. We have a weak low pressure system in the Gulf that is pushing clouds and a little bit of moisture in from the east. Overnight, temperatures have dipped to the mid 20’sF at most locations and the upper teens on the ridgelines with winds increasing from the east with averages ~13mph and gusts to 28mph.
Today, we may see a trace to an inch of snow down to 500′ and a rain/snow mix below. Daytime temperatures should rise into the 30’s at 1,000′ and mid 20’s on the ridgetops. The easterly winds look to remain in the 15-20mph range with occasional stronger gusts.
Tonight and into Monday we may see 1-2 inches of snow accumulation above 1,000′ and a rain/snow mix below. Temperatures look to be warm on Monday afternoon to the upper 30’s at ridgetops and 40’s at 1,000′ with mostly cloudy skies.
Below is a little recap of our season’s precipitation (Turnagain Pass SNOTEL data). We were catching up to average water numbers by February but have dropped off into the 75-80% of normal during our dry April to date.
I will issue the next advisory Tuesday morning, April 23rd.
|04/09/21||Turnagain||Observation: Girdwood to Turnagain Road Observations||W Wagner Forecaster|
|04/05/21||Turnagain||Avalanche: Resort bowl Seattle creek head wall||Clint Kyffin|
|04/04/21||Turnagain||Observation: Center Ridge||Andy Moderow|
|04/03/21||Turnagain||Observation: Repeat Offender – Seattle Ridge||Troy Tempel|
|04/02/21||Turnagain||Observation: Seattle Ridge||Wagner / Schauer Forecaster|
|04/01/21||Turnagain||Observation: Pete’s||Schauer/ Cullen Forecaster|
|03/31/21||Turnagain||Observation: Tincan||Schauer/ Rothman Forecaster|
|03/30/21||Turnagain||Observation: Eddies||Johnston-Bloom / Kinney Forecaster|
|03/30/21||Turnagain||Observation: Sunburst North||lance breeding|
|03/28/21||Turnagain||Observation: Sunburst||Aleph Johnston-Bloom Forecaster|
|Area||Status||Weather & Riding Conditions|