Tue, March 19, 2013 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Tue, March 19th, 2013

Alpine

Above 2,500'

1 - Low

Treeline

1,000'-2,500'

1 - Low

Below Treeline

Below 1,000'

1 - Low

0 - No Rating

1 - Low

2 - Moderate

3 - Considerable

4 - High

5 - Extreme


Travel Advice	Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.	Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.	Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.	Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.	Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches	Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.	Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.	Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.	Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.	Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution	Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.	Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.	Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.	Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.	Very large avalanches in many areas.

Avalanche Problem 1

Normal Caution

Normal Caution

Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.

More info at Avalanche.org

It was a quiet day in backcountry yesterday. Spring break is over and it seems many folks are tuckered out from significant time spent enjoying the past several days of good snow and sunny skies. The plethora of tracks that litter the landscape tell this tale and we are becoming in need of a refresher – possibly this weekend. The clear and cold weather is recycling our powder however and helping out our riding and skiing conditions.

We just received two observations from Saturday worth mentioning. One is a skier triggered slab. This was fairly small but it’s suspect that buried surface hoar was the culprit. The other was a large natural avalanche in the Portage area. This natural seems to be an outlier event in very complex and steep terrain. Thank you to all who have submitted observations this year. Keep them coming. They are invaluable to us!

As Fitz mentioned yesterday, LOW danger doesn’t mean NO danger and below are good things to keep in mind if getting out in the backcountry today:

Loose snow:
Wet loose avalanches will be possible on southerly aspects as the surfaces warms through the day. These can become more worrisome in steep sustained terrain where a small point release can entrain large enough amounts of heavy snow to push a person around. Additionally, dry snow sluffing on steep (40+ degrees) northerly shaded aspects can be expected. These dry sluffs continue to be low volume and manageable.

Cornice fall:
Despite the abundance of large and overhanging cornices in the region, we have not heard of or seen any recent failures in the past several days. However, the unpredictable and high consequence nature of these keeps them blinking on the radar. They are predominantly on south and southwest aspects and time spent underneath them should as limited as possible.

Old Wind slab:
There are many old wind slabs scattered about and a few of these may be sitting on buried surface hoar or developing facets below. There is a chance a person could find and trigger one of these older slabs in isolated areas. This occurred on Saturday to a party who triggered a slab on a SW facing slope in the Turnagain area, mentioned above.

Weather

Tue, March 19th, 2013

Dazzling sunny skies and cold temperatures are over us again today. Yesterday we warmed up to the teens on the ridgetops and mid 20’s F around 1,000′. Overnight temperatures have dropped to around 10F in most areas. Over the past 24 hours winds have been light out of the NW with gusts to 15mph.

Today will be much of the same. Temperatures should warm to the teens on the ridges and 20’s at 1,000′. Winds are expected to shift to a more northerly direction but remain light with gusts to 15mph.

Looking to the future, our clear skies and associated blocking high pressure, look to remain through Thursday. On Friday models are showing a shift in the pattern that will bring clouds and a chance for precipitation over the weekend. Stay tuned.

Kevin will issue the next advisory tomorrow morning, March 20th.

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
04/23/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Sunny Side	Travis SMITH
04/21/24	Turnagain	Observation: Bertha Creek	Anonymous
04/20/24	Turnagain	Avalanche: Spokane Creek	Schauer/ Mailly Forecaster
04/16/24	Turnagain	Observation: Cornbiscuit	Krueger / Matthys Forecaster
04/15/24	Turnagain	Observation: Taylor Pass	John Sykes Forecaster
04/15/24	Turnagain	Observation: Seward Highway – Tern Lake to Portage	Joel Curtis
04/14/24	Turnagain	Observation: Sunburst	T. Olsen-Lund, R. Sullivan I. Adams
04/14/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass Snomo	K. Gallaher
04/13/24	Turnagain	Observation: Spokane Creek	Everet Megli
04/11/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	John Sykes Forecaster

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