Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

For anyone stricken with Powder Fever – President’s Day was just what the doctor ordered. It was one of those great days to enjoy the backcountry. The only avalanche activity seen/reported in the Turnagain area was confined to loose snow sluffs and very small and manageable wind slabs. However, outside of the Turnagain area there was one significant avalanche in the Carter Lake region south of Summit Lake toward Seward. This is outside of our forecasting zone but in our neck of the woods nonetheless.  Alex Mclain, Summit Lake’s CNFAIC forecaster, will try to get a closer look this afternoon.

Today, fresh wind slabs will be our main concern as the east winds ramp up. There is a plethora of loose snow out there to be blown into soft and sensitive slabs. These should be easy to identify by watching where the wind is blowing and visibly loading slopes. Cracking in the snow around you will likely be your next clue. Wind patterns get pretty complex around Turnagain but suspect areas are upper elevation ridgelines and over rollovers on south, west and northerly aspects.  

Loose snow avalanches in areas out of the wind will be an additional concern. With the decrease in temperature overnight, these could run further and faster than they did yesterday. This issue pertains to below treeline elevations as well.

There remain two layers buried below the surface we still have our minds on:

First, a thin layer of weak snow that sits on a late January crust. This is now buried 2-6’ deep and we have not seen avalanche activity within this layer in the Turnagain region. This has been more of an issue in the Girdwood Valley where avalanche activity has been seen and possibly in other surrounding locations (i.e., Placer Valley and 20-mile).

Second, the weak snow near the ground from our early season. This is the deep slab problem we have not been talking about much lately. It has gone dormant for now in the Turnagain and Girdwood areas, but we are concerned with the possibility of it coming back to life with a large multi-day storm cycle and/or in the spring. However, in shallower snow pack areas, such as Summit Lake, it is still more up front in our minds. It looks as though the Carter Lake avalanche mentioned above broke in the weak snow near the ground. Hopefully we will get more information on this today.