Fri, February 08, 2013 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Fri, February 8th, 2013

Alpine
Above 2,500'

Considerable (3)

Treeline
1,000'-2,500'

Moderate (2)

Below Treeline
Below 1,000'

Moderate (2)

Alpine Above 2,500'		Considerable (3)
Treeline 1,000'-2,500'		Moderate (2)
Below Treeline Below 1,000'		Moderate (2)

Danger Scale:

No Rating (0)

Low (1)

Moderate (2)

Considerable (3)

High (4)

Extreme (5)

Avalanche Problem 1

Wind Slabs

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

More info at Avalanche.org

By early afternoon yesterday we could get small soft slabs to pop easily with the influence of a skier just above treeline elevation. If we had ventured higher we would have found larger triggerable pockets with enough mass to cause injuries or burial by the end of the day. A couple of natural avalanches were observed farther south on the Kenai peninsula despite generally poor visibility. The main concern today is these same wind loaded pockets which may still be triggerable by a person. The snowfall stopped around 1000pm last night and wind has diminished significantly, allowing some time for yesterday’s new snow to bond and gain strength.

Today there will be plenty of safe places to enjoy in the backcountry. Below treeline and areas with moderate slope angles below 35 degrees are a good bet for safe travel. Travel above 2500 feet will require careful consideration of wind loading patterns and possibly avoidance of wind loaded areas. At Turnagain Pass the primary wind direction was from the east, but other weather stations showed different patterns. Determining which slopes have wind loaded pockets will require eyes on the ground.

Avalanche Problem 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

More info at Avalanche.org

With some areas receiving more than an inch of new water to the snowpack in the last 48 hours, I’m going to bring back the deep slab discussion. We have not seen a deep slab avalanche in several weeks, however it remains a low probability high consequence concern. The problem seems to have gone dormant but a couple factors could bring it back to life.

1. New snow adding stress to the snowpack will make it more likely to trigger the deep weak layers until the snowpack has adjusted to that new stress.

2. Finding a trigger point in shallow areas of the snowpack could be the influence that initiates a collapse that propagates to deeper areas.

This problem is still in the back of my mind and is still having a subtle influence on my travel decisions in the backcountry. Despite a period of good behavior, the deep slab is still guilty until proven innocent.

Weather

Fri, February 8th, 2013

Snowfall and wind totals from yesterday

Alyeska top – 10-12 inches gusts to 63mph

Turnagain Pass – 6-8 inches gusts to 78mph

Summit Lake – 4-6 inches gusts to 33mph

Snowfall from Wednesday and Thursday was low density powder, making for good skiing. You can still feel the hard crust at low elevations underneath the new snow, but snow quality has improved.

Today looks like a break of calm and partly sunny weather before another storm on Saturday. Isolated snow showers are possible today. Temperatures in the high 20s to low 30s, and little to no snow is forecasted until tonight.

For the weekend a high wind watch is in effect starting Saturday morning. More snowfall is also expected.

Fitz will issue the next advisory tomorrow morning, February 9th.

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
05/22/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	Nick D'Alessio
05/12/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan, Sunburst, Magnum, Cornbiscuit	Heather Thamm
05/07/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan – Bear Tracks	CNFAIC Staff
05/05/23	Turnagain	Observation: Seattle Ridge	AS/ WW Forecaster
05/02/23	Turnagain	Observation: Cornbiscuit	Schauer/ Sturgess Forecaster
05/02/23	Turnagain	Observation: Seward Hwy Turnagain Pass	Joel Curtis
04/30/23	Turnagain	Observation: Magnum	Ayla, Kit Crosby, Barton
04/29/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	John Sykes
04/28/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Taylor Pass/Pastoral	Schauer/ Creighton Forecaster
04/28/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	Andy Moderow

Riding Areas

Updated Thu, June 01st, 2023

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area	Status	Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass	Closed	Closed May 15.
Placer River	Closed	Closed May 15.
Skookum Drainage	Closed	Will close to motorized use on April 1, 2023 per the National Forest Plan.
Turnagain Pass	Closed	Will close on June 1.
Twentymile	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Seward District
Carter Lake	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Lost Lake Trail	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Primrose Trail	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Resurrection Pass Trail	Closed	Closed to motorized use for the 2022/23 winter season per Forest Plan. Open next season.
Snug Harbor	Closed	Extended opening until May 15.
South Fork Snow River Corridor	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Summit Lake	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.