Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast
6-12 inches of new snow yesterday combined with strong wind created wind slabs and lingering pockets of CONSIDERABLE danger above treeline. The danger is on a decreasing trend throughout the day, but tender slabs will be likley in wind loaded areas at higher elevations. Below treeline you may find occasional small and shallow pockets of wind slabs and a LOW to MODERATE danger rating.
By early afternoon yesterday we could get small soft slabs to pop easily with the influence of a skier just above treeline elevation. If we had ventured higher we would have found larger triggerable pockets with enough mass to cause injuries or burial by the end of the day. A couple of natural avalanches were observed farther south on the Kenai peninsula despite generally poor visibility. The main concern today is these same wind loaded pockets which may still be triggerable by a person. The snowfall stopped around 1000pm last night and wind has diminished significantly, allowing some time for yesterday’s new snow to bond and gain strength.
Today there will be plenty of safe places to enjoy in the backcountry. Below treeline and areas with moderate slope angles below 35 degrees are a good bet for safe travel. Travel above 2500 feet will require careful consideration of wind loading patterns and possibly avoidance of wind loaded areas. At Turnagain Pass the primary wind direction was from the east, but other weather stations showed different patterns. Determining which slopes have wind loaded pockets will require eyes on the ground.
With some areas receiving more than an inch of new water to the snowpack in the last 48 hours, I’m going to bring back the deep slab discussion. We have not seen a deep slab avalanche in several weeks, however it remains a low probability high consequence concern. The problem seems to have gone dormant but a couple factors could bring it back to life.
1. New snow adding stress to the snowpack will make it more likely to trigger the deep weak layers until the snowpack has adjusted to that new stress.
2. Finding a trigger point in shallow areas of the snowpack could be the influence that initiates a collapse that propagates to deeper areas.
This problem is still in the back of my mind and is still having a subtle influence on my travel decisions in the backcountry. Despite a period of good behavior, the deep slab is still guilty until proven innocent.
Snowfall and wind totals from yesterday
Alyeska top – 10-12 inches gusts to 63mph
Turnagain Pass – 6-8 inches gusts to 78mph
Summit Lake – 4-6 inches gusts to 33mph
Snowfall from Wednesday and Thursday was low density powder, making for good skiing. You can still feel the hard crust at low elevations underneath the new snow, but snow quality has improved.
Today looks like a break of calm and partly sunny weather before another storm on Saturday. Isolated snow showers are possible today. Temperatures in the high 20s to low 30s, and little to no snow is forecasted until tonight.
For the weekend a high wind watch is in effect starting Saturday morning. More snowfall is also expected.
Fitz will issue the next advisory tomorrow morning, February 9th.
|05/22/23||Turnagain||Avalanche: Tincan||Nick D'Alessio|
|05/12/23||Turnagain||Avalanche: Tincan, Sunburst, Magnum, Cornbiscuit||Heather Thamm|
|05/07/23||Turnagain||Observation: Tincan – Bear Tracks||CNFAIC Staff|
|05/05/23||Turnagain||Observation: Seattle Ridge||AS/ WW Forecaster|
|05/02/23||Turnagain||Observation: Cornbiscuit||Schauer/ Sturgess Forecaster|
|05/02/23||Turnagain||Observation: Seward Hwy Turnagain Pass||Joel Curtis|
|04/30/23||Turnagain||Observation: Magnum||Ayla, Kit Crosby, Barton|
|04/29/23||Turnagain||Observation: Tincan||John Sykes|
|04/28/23||Turnagain||Avalanche: Taylor Pass/Pastoral||Schauer/ Creighton Forecaster|
|04/28/23||Turnagain||Avalanche: Tincan||Andy Moderow|
Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: firstname.lastname@example.org
|Area||Status||Weather & Riding Conditions|
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.