|Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
|Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
|Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.
|Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.
|Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
|Likelihood of Avalanches
|Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.
|Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.
|Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.
|Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.
|Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
|Avalanche Size and Distribution
|Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.
|Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.
|Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.
|Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.
|Very large avalanches in many areas.
Tender wind slabs will once again dominate the discussion today as the primary avalanche concern. Yesterday these wind slabs were shallow and easily triggered on steep convex slopes. With the added wind yesterday and a few more inches of snow overnight we can expect these wind slabs to have gained in depth and mass. The deeper, more dangerous pockets will be found on slopes with a westerly tilt at and above tree line where these slabs are resting on a smooth and supportable crust. At higher elevations where the crust is not present, there is some uncertainty as to how well this most recent snow is bonding. It will be sensible today to pay attention to any red flags including shooting cracks, whumphing or recent avalanches. These are your bulls-eye clues that instability in the snowpack exists.
Shooting crack in shallow wind slab at 2500′. Jan. 30th, 2013. Petes North
This problem has been dormant for some time now. It’s unlikely this most recent storm will provide enough of a punch to wake up this problematic layer. However, it is prudent to continue to be suspect of steep, shallow and rocky terrain above tree line where it is more likely a human could impact this deeper, weak snow.
Forecasted precipitation fell a little flat for us yesterday and last night with the Turnagain pass region only picking up about 1-2 € of new snow. Winds have dropped off substantially overnight as this latest front weakens and moves out of our area.
This last day of January doesn’t look to be like much of a weather producer in our region. Temperatures are expected to be in the low 30’s at 1000′, winds light from the east and less than an inch of new snow in the forecast. Another weak front moves into the gulf tomorrow ushering in a chance for snow/ rain in south central as we head into the weekend.
Fitz will issue the next advisory tomorrow morning, February 1st.
|Observation: TinCan Backdoor/ Center Ridge
|AAS L1 Turnagain
|Avalanche: Lynx Creek
|Observation: Turnagain, Seattle, Mt Ascension
|Silverton Mountain Guides
|Observation: Tincan Trees
|Dalpes/Thamm/ Schauer Forecaster
|Observation: Seward Highway across from Johnson Pass TH
|Avalanche: Base of Seattle Ridge
|Troy Tempel, Thomas Lees, .Josh Bollaert, Damian Naquin
|Observation: Lynx creek
|Observation: Tincan Trees
|Moderow / Clayton